Chicago Fire FC at Charlotte FC
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Charlotte FC
-0.5
Charlotte at home with a short price (+105) on a half-goal spread; our model sees a 49% win probability vs 47.6% implied, yielding a thin but positive EV.
Ω Bottom Line
Charlotte ML +110: +1.4pp edge from 49% model win prob vs 47.6% implied — thin but positive EV on home side.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Charlotte FC
Line: -0.5
Charlotte at home with a short price (+105) on a half-goal spread; our model sees a 49% win probability vs 47.6% implied, yielding a thin but positive EV.
MONEYLINE
Charlotte FC
Charlotte's home ML at +110 implies 47.6% win probability; our model projects 49%, a +1.4pp edge worth +2.9% EV per $100.
TOTAL
under
Line: 3.5
Both teams are mid-table with modest scoring rates; the total of 3.5 is high for a matchup that projects to 2.6-2.8 expected goals. Slight under lean.
Game Analysis
Charlotte at home as a short favorite (+110) offers a thin but positive edge — our model gives them a 49% win probability vs the market's 47.6%. The total of 3.5 is slightly inflated for a game that projects to ~2.7 expected goals, making the under a marginal lean. Player props on Westwood assists (over 0.5) and goal unders for Agyemang and Lod are the sharper angles, each showing 3-4% EV. No injuries or situational flags to exploit.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Ashley Westwood
Charlotte FC
Over 0.5 assists
60%
Westwood is Charlotte's primary set-piece taker and creative midfielder; he averages 0.3 assists per game and has hit the over on 0.5 in 4 of his last 10. At home against a mid-table Chicago defense, he has a solid chance to create a goal.
PROP ALERT
Morrison Agyemang
Charlotte FC
Under 0.5 goals
62%
Agyemang is a striker but has only scored in 2 of his last 10 matches (0.2 goals/game). The under on 0.5 goals hits 80% of the time for him. Chicago's defense is average but not leaky enough to expect a goal from a streaky forward.
PROP ALERT
Robin Lod
Chicago Fire FC
Under 0.5 goals
63%
Lod is a midfielder who rarely scores — 1 goal in his last 10 matches. The under on 0.5 goals hits 90% of the time. Charlotte's home defense is solid, and Lod's role is more about buildup than finishing.