Chicago Fire FC at New York City FC

The Bayesian fusion shows a +5.5pp edge on NYCFC -0.5 at +120, driven by a posterior of 47.7% vs the market's true probability of 42.2%. Whale signals reinforce this with extreme volume ($830k) on the home side. However, data quality is degraded (55% signals available), and the model's total projection of 7.5 is clearly unrealistic, casting doubt on the spread model's accuracy. Still, the combination of positive EV and whale money makes NYCFC -0.5 a sharp lean. Avoid the moneyline (negligible edge) and the over (model likely flawed).