Chicago Sky at Golden State Valkyries

WNBA May 14, 2026 02:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Golden State Valkyries

-5.5

70.4% home win posterior implies 6-7 pt expected margin vs -5.5 spread line

Ω Bottom Line

Valkyries -5.5 (58% conf, +2.8 EV): 70.4% posterior > -5.5 line despite injury parity & whale fade

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Golden State Valkyries

Line: -5.5

58%

70.4% home win posterior implies 6-7 pt expected margin vs -5.5 spread line

TOTAL

under

Line: 166.5

55%

-25% lambda adjustment to both teams from critical injuries projects sub-166 scoring

Game Analysis

Sky hit harder by injuries (-20.7% lambda vs GS -17.2%, net +3.5% home), boosting 63.6% posterior to 65% home win and 58% -4.5 cover. Moderate $19k whales (89% conf) on Sky contradict but volume tier only moderate amid no sharp/public data. 165.5 under lean from combined -38% injury drag; poor 38% data quality caps all at lean/sharp lean.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Janelle Salaun Golden State Valkyries

Over 20.5 points 62%

Team-high usage with 4 key outs boosts shots vs depleted Sky defense (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Veronica Burton Golden State Valkyries

Over 9.0 assists 60%

Primary ballhandler with injuries increasing playmaking role (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Kayla Thornton Golden State Valkyries

Under 5.5 rebounds 58%

Limited rebounder, low pace matchup caps boards (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Gabby Williams Golden State Valkyries

Over 14.5 points 59%

Increased minutes from outs, favorable matchup (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Kaila Charles Golden State Valkyries

Over 12.0 points 57%

Spot-up role expands with injuries (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Laeticia Amihere Golden State Valkyries

Over 6.5 rebounds 60%

Frontcourt load increases sans Rupert/Jocyte (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Kiah Stokes Golden State Valkyries

Over 7.0 rebounds 61%

Defensive specialist grabs boards vs injured Sky (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Ashten Prechtel Golden State Valkyries

Under 8.5 points 56%

Bench role limits upside in low-pace spot (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Kamilla Cardoso Chicago Sky

Over 22.0 points 64%

Dominant post with Sky outs funneling usage (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Kamilla Cardoso Chicago Sky

Over 14.0 rebounds 63%

Rebounding leader thrives vs thin Valkyries frontcourt (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Skylar Diggins Chicago Sky

Over 7.0 assists 61%

Lead guard duties spike with Vandersloot/Cloud issues (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Rickea Jackson Chicago Sky

Over 16.5 points 59%

Rookie wing sees volume bump from multiple outs (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Elizabeth Williams Chicago Sky

Over 7.5 rebounds 58%

Veteran backup fills frontcourt void (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Rachel Banham Chicago Sky

Over 2.0 three_pointers 57%

Shooter benefits from motion offense chaos (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Aicha Coulibaly Chicago Sky

Under 10.5 points 56%

Limited role in heavy injury rotation (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jacy Sheldon Chicago Sky

Over 4.0 assists 55%

Secondary handler steps up (model projection)

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