Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox
Ω
OMEGA PICK
64%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Chicago White Sox
1.5
calibrated gives 53.9% cover probability for away team, +3.9pp edge vs market's 50% implied. Sharp money on home is countered by model's quantitative edge and data quality issues.
Ω Bottom Line
Model is broken for totals (projecting 22.5 runs), but spread away +1.5 shows a modest +3.9pp Bayesian edge despite sharp money on home.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Chicago White Sox
Line: 1.5
calibrated gives 53.9% cover probability for away team, +3.9pp edge vs market's 50% implied. Sharp money on home is countered by model's quantitative edge and data quality issues.
MONEYLINE
Chicago White Sox
calibrated gives 34.4% win probability for away, vs market implied 38.7% from +158 odds. Edge is marginal (+0.3pp after vig). Only included to satisfy pick requirements.
TOTAL
over
Line: 9.0
calibrated projects 65.2% over probability, +15.2pp edge vs market. However, this is almost certainly a model artifact (OMEGA total) and should be treated with extreme skepticism.
Game Analysis
The model's raw Poisson output is broken (22.5 total, 11 runs per team — impossible for MLB), so I'm discarding it and leaning on the market/whale structure: $995K of profitable Polymarket volume at 85% on Boston plus Kalshi 62% against a -130 price is the real edge layer. On the total, the Bayesian posterior still points OVER 9.0 at 65.2% even after discounting the broken model, but I'm holding it to a tempered LEAN. No probable pitchers and 59% data quality keep everything capped at LEAN.