Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins

MLB April 09, 2026 04:10 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Cincinnati Reds

0.0

Reds 16-6 vs model historically + perfect 4-0 H2H this series (ML/spread wins 4/9,4/6)

Ω Bottom Line

Reds ML -261 (model exact breakeven) but 16-6 historical + 3-0 H2H series = +1.2 EV micro-edge

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Cincinnati Reds

55%

Reds 16-6 vs model historically + perfect 4-0 H2H this series (ML/spread wins 4/9,4/6)

MONEYLINE

Cincinnati Reds

57%

Model win prob 72% meets -261 breakeven exactly but Reds 16-6 model record + 3-0 ML H2H series

Game Analysis

Massive +58.9% EV on Marlins spread at +340 Bovada vs Pinnacle fair 36% (177); 14.9% sharp edge despite omega even spread. Reds ML has model edge to 46% but breakeven 46.2% at +116 kills value. Under 7 lean with Alcantara 0.00/12K9 vs Burns 0.82 but totals losing across tiers.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Team leader 3HR early, high usage leadoff vs Marlins staff (model prop)

PROP ALERT

Eugenio Suarez Cincinnati Reds

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

Team RBI leader (7) in even matchup (model prop)

PROP ALERT

Sal Stewart Cincinnati Reds

Over 0.5 hits 55%

.351 BA team leader, favorable matchup (model prop)

PROP ALERT

Chase Burns Cincinnati Reds

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

0.82 ERA leader, K leader projection vs Marlins (model prop)

PROP ALERT

Xavier Edwards Miami Marlins

Over 1.0 hits 57%

.390 BA team leader vs Reds staff (model prop)

PROP ALERT

Liam Hicks Miami Marlins

Under 0.5 home_runs 55%

3 HR leader but rare event in even matchup (model prop)

PROP ALERT

Sandy Alcantara Miami Marlins

Over 6.5 strikeouts 62%

0.74 ERA + 18K leader, elite vs Reds bats (model prop)

PROP ALERT

Liam Hicks Miami Marlins

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

12 RBI team leader projection (model prop)

PROP ALERT

Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

Power leader 3HR, high upside (model prop)

PROP ALERT

Sandy Alcantara Miami Marlins

Under 3.5 hits 58%

2 hits allowed leader, dominant 0.74 ERA (model prop)

PROP ALERT

Eugenio Suarez Cincinnati Reds

Under 0.5 home_runs 55%

7 HR leader but vs Alcantara (model prop)

PROP ALERT

Chase Burns Cincinnati Reds

Under 4.5 hits 57%

0.82 ERA suggests strong control (model prop)

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