Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Cavaliers
3.5
Huerter out gives CLE +6.9% net injury edge, boosting cover prob to 54% vs market-implied 50%
Ω Bottom Line
CLE +3.5 on Huerter out (+6.9% edge) + sharp total over 215.5 (24.8% divergence, +82 EV)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Cleveland Cavaliers
Line: 3.5
Huerter out gives CLE +6.9% net injury edge, boosting cover prob to 54% vs market-implied 50%
TOTAL
over
Line: 215.5
Sharp 24.8% edge on over + RLM + +EV 82.6% vs Market Consensus fair 50.7%; cross-market over lean
Game Analysis
Omega spread -2.5 vs market -3.5 gives CLE +3.5 value, backed by MC 56.9% away cover at -2.5 and DET Huerter out (-6.9% impact). Bayesian 64.5% DET ML edge +3.7% with whale confirmation, but MC 48.4% home win divergence caps at Sharp Lean. Massive total mismatch (Omega/MC ~180-188 vs 214.5) screams under, but historical totals 48.7% WR limits to LEAN.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Cade Cunningham
Detroit Pistons
Over 23.5 points
62%
Season-leading 23.9 avg vs proj line; high usage vs CLE defense (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Cade Cunningham
Detroit Pistons
Over 9.5 assists
60%
Leads team at 9.9 avg; CLE weak on PG assists allowed (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Jalen Duren
Detroit Pistons
Over 10.5 rebounds
61%
Team-leading 10.5 reb avg; Mobley/Allen split minutes boost opp reb (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Tobias Harris
Detroit Pistons
Over 17.5 points
58%
Consistent 17+ scorer; favorable CLE wing defense (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Caris LeVert
Detroit Pistons
Under 13.0 points
59%
Avg 14.1 but reduced role with Cunningham/Harris; CLE strong perimeter (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Paul Reed
Detroit Pistons
Over 6.5 rebounds
57%
Backup reb specialist; Duren rest boosts opp (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Marcus Sasser
Detroit Pistons
Under 3.5 assists
56%
Limited role behind Cunningham; low usage (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Duncan Robinson
Detroit Pistons
Over 2.5 three_pointers
60%
Shooter avg 2.7 3PM; CLE avg 3pt defense (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Donovan Mitchell
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over 27.5 points
64%
Team-high 27.9 avg; DET poor guard defense, Huerter out helps (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Donovan Mitchell
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over 5.5 assists
61%
5.7 avg with Harden; secondary creation vs DET (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Evan Mobley
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over 9.0 rebounds
62%
9.0 reb avg; Duren matchup even, home rebounding weak (model projection)
PROP ALERT
James Harden
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over 19.5 points
59%
High-usage 19.8 avg; DET backcourt allows pts (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Jarrett Allen
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over 10.0 rebounds
60%
Strong 10.2 reb; Duren/Reed split (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Dennis Schroder
Cleveland Cavaliers
Under 5.0 assists
58%
5.6 avg but Mitchell/Harden dominate ball (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Max Strus
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over 2.0 three_pointers
57%
2.2 3PM avg; spot-up vs DET (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Larry Nance Jr.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over 5.5 rebounds
56%
Backup 5.7 reb; rotation minutes (model projection)