Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons
Ω
OMEGA PICK
64%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Pistons
-3.5
calibrated 63% home win (ML proxy for spread) + extreme $3.2M whale volume on DET overrides injury noise
Ω Bottom Line
DET -3.5 (64% conf, +2.1 EV): Extreme institutional $3.2M whales + 63% Bayesian posterior trumps -13.8% injury hit
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Detroit Pistons
Line: -3.5
calibrated 63% home win (ML proxy for spread) + extreme $3.2M whale volume on DET overrides injury noise
TOTAL
over
Line: 212.5
Sharp 16.4% edge on over + RLM + +EV +40% outlier at retail books
Game Analysis
Bayesian fuses to 63.5% Pistons ML (+4.5pp edge) with whales extreme on home ($454k, 93% conf) despite pred markets away; Cavs +3.2 at posterior 55.8% as omega -2.5 < market and net injury edge. Total over 119.5 crushes with 57.1% posterior (+7.1pp), MC 72.5% at 179, sharps 23.9% edge but cap conf on weak totals WR.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Cade Cunningham
Detroit Pistons
Over 23.5 points
62%
Model projects 25.0 pts with Huerter out boosting usage vs CLE defense
PROP ALERT
Cade Cunningham
Detroit Pistons
Over 9.5 assists
60%
High usage PG projects 10.5 ast in home matchup
PROP ALERT
Jalen Duren
Detroit Pistons
Over 10.5 rebounds
61%
Rebound leader projects 11.0 with Mobley matchup
PROP ALERT
Tobias Harris
Detroit Pistons
Over 17.5 points
58%
Projects 18.5 pts on increased shots from injuries
PROP ALERT
Javonte Green
Detroit Pistons
Under 11.0 points
59%
Model projects 9.5 pts in limited role
PROP ALERT
Paul Reed
Detroit Pistons
Over 6.5 rebounds
57%
Backup rebound projection 7.5 with Duren minutes
PROP ALERT
Duncan Robinson
Detroit Pistons
Under 2.5 three_pointers
60%
DTD status caps projection at 2.0 makes
PROP ALERT
Donovan Mitchell
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over 27.5 points
64%
Star projects 29.0 pts vs DET perimeter D
PROP ALERT
Jarrett Allen
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over 10.0 rebounds
60%
Projects 10.5 vs DET frontcourt injuries
PROP ALERT
Larry Nance Jr.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Under 5.5 rebounds
57%
Limited minutes project 4.5 reb