Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors

NBA April 26, 2026 05:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Cleveland Cavaliers

-3.5

Toronto -17.2% injury hit (Quickley/Hepburn OUT) creates 4pt swing value vs -3.5

Ω Bottom Line

CLE -3.5 (+3.8 EV): TOR -17% injury hit + sharp RLM/whale extreme vs 3.5 line

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Cleveland Cavaliers

Line: -3.5

62%

Toronto -17.2% injury hit (Quickley/Hepburn OUT) creates 4pt swing value vs -3.5

MONEYLINE

Cleveland Cavaliers

60%

Breakeven 63% but our 65% prob from injury adj + calibrated market prior

TOTAL

over

Line: 220.5

58%

16.4% sharp edge + RLM on over; cross-market consensus over

Game Analysis

Market juiced Cleveland -144/-2.8 despite OMEGA even ML/NegBin 56% Toronto; injuries hit Raps harder but MC 46% home win + Bayesian +1.1% edge = value on dog spread/ML. Total 122 vs 179 proj/MC 80% over + sharp RLM/23.9% div = massive misprice despite totals hist weakness. Whales/PM away contradict game picks (-conf) but confirm high total.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Donovan Mitchell Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 27.5 points 65%

Season-leading 27.9 PPG vs TOR weak guard defense; Quickley OUT boosts usage

PROP ALERT

Evan Mobley Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 9.0 rebounds 62%

Matches leader avg; Poeltl matchup but TOR frontcourt thin w/injuries

PROP ALERT

Jarrett Allen Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 10.5 rebounds 60%

High-usage center vs depleted TOR bigs; rebounding edge in sims

PROP ALERT

James Harden Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 7.5 assists 58%

Playmaking vs TOR backcourt injuries; elevated role

PROP ALERT

Donovan Mitchell Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 5.5 assists 60%

Leader in ast; Quickley OUT opens assists

PROP ALERT

Dennis Schroder Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 12.5 points 55%

Secondary scoring vs weakened TOR guards

PROP ALERT

Max Strus Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 2.5 three_pointers 57%

Shooter thrives vs TOR perimeter D

PROP ALERT

Larry Nance Jr. Cleveland Cavaliers

Under 5.5 rebounds 59%

Backup role limited minutes projection

PROP ALERT

Scottie Barnes Toronto Raptors

Over 20.5 points 63%

Alpha w/Quickley OUT; usage spike to 28%

PROP ALERT

Scottie Barnes Toronto Raptors

Over 7.5 rebounds 64%

Rebounding leader; CLE bigs foul-prone

PROP ALERT

Brandon Ingram Toronto Raptors

Over 21.5 points 61%

Lead scorer; CLE wing D average

PROP ALERT

Jakob Poeltl Toronto Raptors

Over 9.5 rebounds 59%

Primary big vs Mobley/Allen battle

PROP ALERT

RJ Barrett Toronto Raptors

Under 18.5 points 56%

CLE perimeter D limits; reduced role w/injuries

PROP ALERT

Gradey Dick Toronto Raptors

Over 2.0 three_pointers 55%

Spot-up volume up w/backcourt outs

PROP ALERT

Jamal Shead Toronto Raptors

Over 4.5 assists 57%

Backup PG duties elevated by outs

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Mogbo Toronto Raptors

Under 4.5 rebounds 58%

Limited minutes behind Poeltl

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