Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors

NBA May 01, 2026 11:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Cleveland Cavaliers

-4.0

Toronto -13.8% injury hit (Quickley/Hepburn out) boosts CLE cover prob to 54% vs implied 50%

Ω Bottom Line

CLE -4 (3.2 EV) as Toronto injuries sap 13.8% efficiency, sharp divergence confirms

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Cleveland Cavaliers

Line: -4.0

58%

Toronto -13.8% injury hit (Quickley/Hepburn out) boosts CLE cover prob to 54% vs implied 50%

TOTAL

over

Line: 221.0

57%

14.3% sharp edge + +36% EV on over per Market Consensus devig

Game Analysis

Toronto gutted by -13.8% injury hit (Quickley/Hepburn out) hands edge to healthy Cavs; sharp RLM + 2.8% spread edge + extreme $193k whales on Cleveland. Total over has massive 16.2% sharp divergence/+40% EV but totals weak historically. Degraded data caps conf.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Donovan Mitchell Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 27.5 points 65%

Season-leading 27.9 PPG vs Toronto weak guard defense; usage up with healthy roster

PROP ALERT

Evan Mobley Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 9.0 rebounds 62%

Matches Poeltl; Toronto missing depth boosts board work

PROP ALERT

James Harden Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 7.5 assists 60%

High-usage PG in favorable matchup vs depleted Toronto backcourt

PROP ALERT

Jarrett Allen Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 10.0 rebounds 61%

Strong vs Poeltl; injury cascade increases opportunities

PROP ALERT

Dennis Schroder Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 5.5 assists 58%

Secondary playmaker thrives vs Toronto guards out

PROP ALERT

Max Strus Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 2.5 three_pointers 57%

Shooter volume up in pace-up spot

PROP ALERT

Larry Nance Jr. Cleveland Cavaliers

Under 5.5 rebounds 59%

Limited minutes behind Mobley/Allen

PROP ALERT

Craig Porter Jr. Cleveland Cavaliers

Under 8.0 points 56%

Bench role, stars healthy

PROP ALERT

Brandon Ingram Toronto Raptors

Under 21.5 points 60%

Injury cascade reduces usage; CLE elite wing defense

PROP ALERT

Scottie Barnes Toronto Raptors

Over 7.5 rebounds 61%

Primary rebounder with frontcourt intact vs Mobley

PROP ALERT

RJ Barrett Toronto Raptors

Over 18.5 points 59%

Volume shooter steps up with Quickley out

PROP ALERT

Jakob Poeltl Toronto Raptors

Over 9.0 rebounds 62%

CLE bigs foul-prone; rest advantage

PROP ALERT

Gradey Dick Toronto Raptors

Over 2.0 three_pointers 57%

Spot-up role expands sans Quickley

PROP ALERT

Jamison Battle Toronto Raptors

Under 10.5 points 58%

Limited role in depleted rotation

PROP ALERT

Sandro Mamukelashvili Toronto Raptors

Under 9.5 points 56%

Bench minutes squeezed by injuries

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Mogbo Toronto Raptors

Over 4.5 rebounds 55%

Hustle role vs CLE interior

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