Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

NHL May 10, 2026 01:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Colorado Avalanche

-1.5

Whales ($320k extreme vol) + MIN Brodin out creates cover edge (our 38% cover > 33% breakeven)

Ω Bottom Line

Whales dump $320k extreme vol on COL + Brodin out (-19% MIN lambda) = -1.5 +200 (+12 EV)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Colorado Avalanche

Line: -1.5

62%

Whales ($320k extreme vol) + MIN Brodin out creates cover edge (our 38% cover > 33% breakeven)

MONEYLINE

Colorado Avalanche

54%

Whale consensus overrides flat model posterior

TOTAL

under

Line: 6.5

58%

Defensive injuries (Brodin out) drop MIN lambda -18.9%; NHL playoffs unders hit 54% N=50

Game Analysis

Omega Poisson+ELO pegs even spread (0.0, 7.8-7.8 exp scores) but market juices COL -1.5 on injuries overlooking MIN's -19% hit (Brodin/Eriksson Ek out). Extreme $320k whales (33 wallets) hammer COL confirming net +12.6% away edge. Bayesian over posterior 65.2% torches 6.5 total (+15pp, EV+24.5) despite historical total struggles.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Kirill Kaprizov Minnesota Wild

Over 3.5 shots_on_goal 60%

Model projection 4.1 adj for matchup; avg exceeds line (N=45 season goals leader)

PROP ALERT

Kirill Kaprizov Minnesota Wild

Over 1.0 hockey_points 58%

89 pts season leader; home usage boost despite injuries

PROP ALERT

Kirill Kaprizov Minnesota Wild

Over 0.5 goals 55%

45 goals pace; power play edge vs COL PK

PROP ALERT

Matt Boldy Minnesota Wild

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%

High volume shooter; injury cascade increases shots

PROP ALERT

Filip Gustavsson Minnesota Wild

Under 27.5 saves 56%

COL high pace projects fewer shots; model 25.8

PROP ALERT

Brock Faber Minnesota Wild

Over 1.5 shots_on_goal 55%

D-pair usage up with Brodin out

PROP ALERT

Joel Eriksson Ek Minnesota Wild

Over 0.5 hockey_points 54%

DTD but probable; faceoff edge vs COL

PROP ALERT

Mats Zuccarello Minnesota Wild

Over 0.5 assists 56%

Playmaker on top line; model proj 0.7

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 4.0 shots_on_goal 62%

127 shots leader; MIN injuries boost opportunities

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.5 hockey_points 60%

74 pts pace; road favorite splits 68% hit N=25

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 0.5 goals 59%

53 goals pace; whale-aligned usage

PROP ALERT

Mikko Rantanen Colorado Avalanche

Over 3.0 shots_on_goal 58%

High-volume winger; MIN D depleted

PROP ALERT

Cale Makar Colorado Avalanche

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%

PP QB; Brodin out weakens MIN top pair

PROP ALERT

Alexandar Georgiev Colorado Avalanche

Over 25.5 saves 55%

MIN Kaprizov volume projects 27 shots

PROP ALERT

Mikko Rantanen Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.0 hockey_points 59%

MacKinnon synergy; model 1.3 proj

PROP ALERT

Casey Mittelstadt Colorado Avalanche

Under 1.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Lower line vs MIN shutdown; proj 1.2

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