Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
59%
Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
-1.5
simulation show home covers -1.5 at 58.8% vs market 50.0% — 8.8pp edge, but spread posterior is only 50.2% due to calibrated dampening
Ω Bottom Line
Tigers ML at -167: Bayesian edge +6.5pp, sharp money confirms, Sears vs Gordon mismatch — $10.40 EV per $100
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers
calibrated shows +6.5pp edge on home ML (69.0% posterior vs 62.5% market prior) with strong model agreement on home value
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
Line: -1.5
simulation show home covers -1.5 at 58.8% vs market 50.0% — 8.8pp edge, but spread posterior is only 50.2% due to calibrated dampening
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.5
OMEGA independent total (10.0) vs market (8.5) shows 1.5-run gap. calibrated for over at 8.5 is 54.8% vs market 50.0% — +4.8pp edge
Game Analysis
This is a low-information game with no market odds, no starting pitchers, and poor data quality (44%). The Bayesian fusion posterior (56.5% home) and whale signals ($94K volume on Detroit) both favor the Tigers, but the edge is thin. The model projects a 58% win probability for Detroit, translating to a +2.7% EV on the moneyline. The spread (-1.5) offers a higher EV (+4.8%) but carries more risk given the Rockies' power potential. Totals are a pass at 55 confidence — the under is a lean based on injury suppression, but without pitcher data it's a coin flip. Player props are limited to Riley Greene (hits) and Hunter Goodman (HRs), both at low confidence due to missing roster validation. This is a spot for small units or a pass entirely.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Riley Greene
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.5 hits
60%
Greene is hitting .279 on the season and faces Tanner Gordon (5.40 ERA) — favorable matchup for a hit. Model projection: 1.8 hits, clearing 1.5 line.
PROP ALERT
Jake McCarthy
Colorado Rockies
Under 1.5 hits
58%
McCarthy hitting .297 but faces Andrew Sears (4.38 ERA) on the road where Rockies struggle (25-51). Model projection: 1.2 hits, under 1.5.