Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
-1.5
Posterior spread cover at 50.4% vs market 50.0% — marginal +0.4pp edge. Sharp money divergence (14.6%) suggests real value, but the model edge is thin.
Ω Bottom Line
Tigers ML at -156: Bayesian edge +8.2pp, sharp money divergence 14.6%, $119K whale volume — three signals converge on Detroit.
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers
calibrated posterior 69.1% vs market 60.9% — +8.2pp edge with strong model agreement on home value.
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
Line: -1.5
Posterior spread cover at 50.4% vs market 50.0% — marginal +0.4pp edge. Sharp money divergence (14.6%) suggests real value, but the model edge is thin.
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.5
calibrated on over 8.5 is 55.3% vs market 50.0% — +5.3pp edge. OMEGA model projects 10.0 total, well above the market line of 8.5.
Game Analysis
OMEGA analysis generated.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Riley Greene
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.5 hits
58%
Model projection: Greene is the Tigers' top hitter (.281 avg) and faces a Rockies pitching staff that has been below average. No market line available for comparison — model-projected line set at 1.5 hits.
PROP ALERT
Hunter Goodman
Colorado Rockies
Over 0.5 hits
55%
Model projection: Goodman leads Rockies in HR (38) and RBI (81). Even against a strong Tigers staff, a power hitter of his caliber should get at least 1 hit. Model-projected line set at 0.5 hits.