Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

Bayesian fusion flags a -12.3pp discrepancy between market (58.9% Giants) and our posterior (46.5%) — that is a rare negative edge for the favorite, meaning the away side is dramatically undervalued. Sharp Pinnacle money confirms: 4.1% divergence toward Rockies at +114. The $2.3M whale volume on the Giants (66% confidence) looks like public consensus money, not sharp action — Polymarket whale signals in MLB are high but less predictive than Pinnacle sharp lines. Both sides have significant injuries (Chapman, Bader, Doyle out — Rockies -7.8%, Giants -6.9% impact) but the gap is neutralized. OMEGA total (22.5) is a clear Poisson artifact — ignore it. Under 8.5 is a practical Lean given two depleted lineups at Oracle Park, but historical total WR (48.7%) demands caution. Core play: Rockies ML at +114, where the Bayesian edge and sharp money converge.