Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

NBA April 09, 2026 02:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

64% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Dallas Mavericks

10.5

OMEGA spread -3 vs market -10.5 = 7.5pt discrepancy, MC shows DAL covers +10.5 in 60%+ sims

Ω Bottom Line

DAL +370 ML +15.7 EV (market 83% breakeven vs OMEGA 60%); Suns -10.5 vs model -3 inflated by injury overreaction

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Dallas Mavericks

Line: 10.5

64%

OMEGA spread -3 vs market -10.5 = 7.5pt discrepancy, MC shows DAL covers +10.5 in 60%+ sims

MONEYLINE

Dallas Mavericks

65%

Book needs 82.9% Suns win prob to breakeven, OMEGA/MC at 56-60% → +23% edge

TOTAL

under

Line: 230.5

60%

OMEGA total 203 vs market 230.5 = 27.5pt gap, MC over 203 hits just 48.9%

Game Analysis

Suns get massive edge with full guard rotation vs Mavs sans Kyrie Irving (out) + Bagley/Gafford/Martin injury questions thinning frontcourt. Model projects 110-107.5 Suns win (58% prob) for +2.5/-130 value. Booker 25.8PPG feasts on depleted Mavs D; lean Suns ML given profitable tier calibration.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Devin Booker Phoenix Suns

Over 25.5 points 65%

Team leader avg exceeds line, primary scorer with DAL injuries

PROP ALERT

Devin Booker Phoenix Suns

Over 6.0 assists 62%

Matches leader avg, increased playmaking vs depleted DAL

PROP ALERT

Jalen Green Phoenix Suns

Over 18.5 points 60%

High-usage guard, model projects bump vs weak DAL backcourt

PROP ALERT

Dillon Brooks Phoenix Suns

Over 2.0 three_pointers 58%

Volume shooter, home splits favor 3s

PROP ALERT

Oso Ighodaro Phoenix Suns

Over 7.5 rebounds 61%

Big minutes with Highsmith out, DAL frontcourt depleted

PROP ALERT

Grayson Allen Phoenix Suns

Under 2.5 three_pointers 59%

Model sees regression vs DAL perimeter D

PROP ALERT

Ryan Dunn Phoenix Suns

Over 9.5 points 57%

Rookie scaling up, favorable matchup

PROP ALERT

Isaiah Livers Phoenix Suns

Under 8.0 points 60%

Limited role behind Booker/Green

PROP ALERT

Cooper Flagg Dallas Mavericks

Over 21.0 points 64%

Team leader forced into 30+ usage with Kyrie/Martin out

PROP ALERT

Ryan Nembhard Dallas Mavericks

Over 5.0 assists 62%

Primary ballhandler with Irving out, PHX weak perimeter D

PROP ALERT

Dereck Lively II Dallas Mavericks

Over 9.5 rebounds 63%

Starting center, rebounding spike with Gafford/Washington out

PROP ALERT

Khris Middleton Dallas Mavericks

Over 16.5 points 61%

Secondary scorer elevated usage in depleted lineup

PROP ALERT

Naji Marshall Dallas Mavericks

Over 11.0 points 59%

Wing minutes up with injuries

PROP ALERT

Marvin Bagley III Dallas Mavericks

Over 6.5 rebounds 58%

Backup big opportunity with multiple PF/C out

PROP ALERT

Max Christie Dallas Mavericks

Over 1.5 three_pointers 57%

Spot-up role expands sans Irving

PROP ALERT

Dwight Powell Dallas Mavericks

Under 5.0 rebounds 60%

Lively eats frontcourt minutes

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