Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets
Ω
DDN SI PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Dallas Stars
-1.5
Cross-market confirmation (ML and spread both favor Dallas) plus an injury-adjusted edge: Capobianco and Back on IR shift away lambda -25%, keeping the puck-line side the market is slowest to reprice.
Ω Bottom Line
Dallas is the sharp-and-Kalshi side but the -130 price is 4.1pp rich vs the model — +195 puck line instead, and look at the Under trend; all graded LEAN/PASS.
Game Analysis
Models and market disagree on the Stars: Dixon-Coles projects 1.76-2.85 and the fused posterior has Dallas at 61.7% vs Kalshi's 56.5% — that +5.2pp gap is the only real edge in this game, worth roughly +9 per $100. The wrinkle: four Stars on IR (Duchene headlining) cut away lambda by 25%, and team strength weighting means regression risk if Columbus is outperforming its numbers. No market odds are posted yet, so sizing is lean — take the side the math likes, not the confidence.