Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins OMEGA Picks — March 28, 2026

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

Dallas Stars

66%

PIT missing Crosby/Malkin (40% offense) creates 8% win prob edge for DAL per model

SPREAD

Dallas Stars +0.5

Line: -110

63%

Model expected scores DAL 2.9 - PIT 2.6; PIT depth depleted without Hintz equivalent on DAL side

TOTAL

Under 5.5

68%

10 combined IR/DTD = -1.2 goals expected; model Poisson 5.3 total

Game Analysis

PIT gutted without Malkin/Lizotte (top C/depth) drops their proj to 2.4 goals; DAL misses Hintz/Seguin but Robertson/Johnston/Heiskanen carry 55% win prob. Model totals 5.5 but injuries suppress scoring -0.4 goals expected. Depth disparity creates +2.7 EV on DAL ML, +3.2 on under.

Game Theory & Utilization

PIT gutted without Malkin/Lizotte (top C/depth) drops their proj to 2.4 goals; DAL misses Hintz/Seguin but Robertson/Johnston/Heiskanen carry 55% win prob. Model totals 5.5 but injuries suppress scoring -0.4 goals expected. Depth disparity creates +2.7 EV on DAL ML, +3.2 on under.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jason Robertson Dallas Stars

Over 0.5 points 60%

85 SOG leader gets PP1 boost vs PIT depleted D; usage up 18% without Hintz/Seguin

PROP ALERT

Miro Heiskanen Dallas Stars

Over 0.5 points 58%

50 pts healthy; PIT missing Karlsson equivalent, model projects 0.7 pts

PROP ALERT

Wyatt Johnston Dallas Stars

Under 0.5 goals 62%

40-game pace but PIT goalie matchup suppresses; under in 7/10 vs Metro

PROP ALERT

Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh Penguins

Under 0.5 points 59%

DTD status caps ice time; DAL shutdown D (Heiskanen) projects 0.4 pts even if plays

PROP ALERT

Erik Karlsson Pittsburgh Penguins

Under 0.5 points 57%

45 pts pace slows late season; DAL forecheck limits D points (under 6/10 road games)

PROP ALERT

Evgeni Malkin Pittsburgh Penguins

Under 0.5 points 61%

DTD + DAL PK top-5 vs centers; model sees 50% no-point prob