Dallas Wings at Indiana Fever

WNBA April 30, 2026 11:00 PM ET FINAL 95 - 80

Ω OMEGA PICK

56% Lean

SPREAD

Indiana Fever

-0.5

Strong whale volume provides only directional signal in 50/50 model matchup

Ω Bottom Line

Fever ML -110 (+1.2 EV): $50k STRONG whale steam tilts 50/50 injury-crippled matchup

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Indiana Fever

Line: -0.5

56%

Strong whale volume provides only directional signal in 50/50 model matchup

MONEYLINE

Indiana Fever

57%

$50k whale steam (STRONG tier, 100% home) tilts even 50/50 posterior to 53% our prob

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior even at 50% with equal -13.8% injury hits both sides (Hull/Boston DTD home, Kuier/Marshall DTD away). Only signal is strong whale volume ($39K, 100% home) boosting to 55% our prob vs model -110. Low conf leans across board; data too poor for higher.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Caitlin Clark Indiana Fever

Over 21.5 points 62%

Model projection adjusted for high usage vs Wings defense (no market comp)

PROP ALERT

Caitlin Clark Indiana Fever

Over 8.0 assists 60%

Primary ballhandler with injury cascade boosting touches

PROP ALERT

Kelsey Mitchell Indiana Fever

Over 17.5 points 58%

Consistent scorer, matchup favors volume shots

PROP ALERT

Aliyah Boston Indiana Fever

Over 8.5 rebounds 55%

Post presence despite DTD (assume plays), Wings weak rebounding

PROP ALERT

Monique Billings Indiana Fever

Over 12.5 points 57%

Secondary scoring option with increased role from injuries

PROP ALERT

Myisha Hines-Allen Indiana Fever

Over 6.5 rebounds 56%

Forward rebounding projection vs Wings frontcourt injuries

PROP ALERT

Sophie Cunningham Indiana Fever

Over 2.0 three_pointers 59%

Shooter volume up in injury-depleted backcourt

PROP ALERT

Damiris Dantas Indiana Fever

Under 10.5 points 54%

Limited role projection with stars active

PROP ALERT

Arike Ogunbowale Dallas Wings

Over 23.5 points 63%

High-usage star guard vs Fever perimeter D

PROP ALERT

Paige Bueckers Dallas Wings

Over 18.5 points 61%

Scoring guard projection with matchup edge

PROP ALERT

Paige Bueckers Dallas Wings

Over 5.0 assists 58%

Facilitator role boosted by frontcourt injuries

PROP ALERT

Maddy Siegrist Dallas Wings

Over 8.0 rebounds 57%

Rebounding projection vs Fever interior

PROP ALERT

Alanna Smith Dallas Wings

Over 11.5 points 55%

Forward scoring with injury usage bump

PROP ALERT

Azzi Fudd Dallas Wings

Over 2.5 three_pointers 60%

Shooting specialist projection

PROP ALERT

Aziaha James Dallas Wings

Under 13.0 points 56%

Reduced role behind stars

PROP ALERT

Odyssey Sims Dallas Wings

Over 4.5 assists 54%

Backup PG minutes projection

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail