Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers

NBA April 04, 2026 11:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Detroit Pistons

-2.5

3.1% sharp edge on DET spread + PHI missing Broome while DET depth holds despite injuries

Ω Bottom Line

DET ML -142 (+3.8 EV) w/ sharp spread edge + OVER 228.5 (17% sharp div/RLM) despite injuries

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Detroit Pistons

Line: -2.5

65%

3.1% sharp edge on DET spread + PHI missing Broome while DET depth holds despite injuries

MONEYLINE

Detroit Pistons

66%

Our 61% > 58.7% breakeven by 2.3%; moneylines profitable across lean/strong tiers

TOTAL

over

Line: 228.5

69%

17.1% sharp divergence + RLM on over; +43% EV available at +185 elsewhere vs fair 50.2%

Game Analysis

DET crippled without Cunningham (24.5pts/9.9ast OUT) + Stewart OUT, Harris DTD—Maxey (28.8pts) + Drummond (8.4rpg) give PHI clear edge at home. Model 68% PHI win prob vs -190 breakeven 65.5% = +5.2EV ML. Totals faded per calibration (losing across tiers), project under 212.5 with star injuries.

Game Theory & Utilization

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Tyrese Maxey Philadelphia 76ers

Over 28.5 points 64%

Leads team scoring; usage spikes with Broome out

PROP ALERT

Tyrese Maxey Philadelphia 76ers

Over 6.5 assists 62%

Team lead in assists; favorable DET matchup

PROP ALERT

Andre Drummond Philadelphia 76ers

Over 8.5 rebounds 63%

Team rebound leader; Duren focal point boosts boards

PROP ALERT

Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers

Over 27.5 points 65%

Star center projects high usage vs depleted DET frontcourt

PROP ALERT

Paul George Philadelphia 76ers

Under 21.5 points 61%

Secondary role to Maxey/Embiid; DET perimeter D solid

PROP ALERT

Kelly Oubre Jr. Philadelphia 76ers

Over 14.5 points 60%

Spot-up volume up with injuries

PROP ALERT

Quentin Grimes Philadelphia 76ers

Over 2.0 three_pointers 59%

Shooter thrives in pace-up game

PROP ALERT

Kyle Lowry Philadelphia 76ers

Over 4.5 assists 60%

Veteran facilitator off bench

PROP ALERT

Cade Cunningham Detroit Pistons

Under 24.0 points 62%

OUT per injury report - model projects 0

PROP ALERT

Jalen Duren Detroit Pistons

Over 10.5 rebounds 64%

Team rebound leader; PHI weak interior sans Broome

PROP ALERT

Tobias Harris Detroit Pistons

Under 16.5 points 61%

DTD + PHI wings contest shots

PROP ALERT

Caris LeVert Detroit Pistons

Over 13.5 points 60%

Usage up with Cunningham out

PROP ALERT

Paul Reed Detroit Pistons

Over 6.0 rebounds 59%

Backup big minutes expand vs Drummond

PROP ALERT

Duncan Robinson Detroit Pistons

Over 2.5 three_pointers 62%

Specialist volume in over-biased sharp spot

PROP ALERT

Kevin Huerter Detroit Pistons

Over 11.5 points 60%

Shooting wing benefits from pace

PROP ALERT

Javonte Green Detroit Pistons

Under 8.5 points 58%

Limited role behind starters

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