Detroit Tigers at Athletics
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Athletics
1.5
calibrated gives Athletics +1.5 a 53.9% cover probability vs market 52.4%, yielding +2.9% EV.
Ω Bottom Line
Bayesian fusion sees 65% over 11.0 with +24 EV; sharp money on Tigers but spread value on Athletics +1.5.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Athletics
Line: 1.5
calibrated gives Athletics +1.5 a 53.9% cover probability vs market 52.4%, yielding +2.9% EV.
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers
calibrated 59.9% vs market 54.1% gives +10.66 EV per $100. Sharp signals and whale activity confirm away value.
TOTAL
over
Line: 11.0
calibrated 65.2% over 11.0 vs market 50.0% gives massive +24.47 EV. Model sees high scoring despite OMEGA's inflated projection.
Game Analysis
Sharp money with extreme whale volume ($203K) aligns on Detroit ML, where Bayesian fusion shows 59.2% win probability vs 53.0% implied — a +10.9pp edge. The scoring model projects a combined 20+ runs, making the market total of 11.0 look grossly mispriced; over hits at 65.2% posterior. Take Tigers ML, A's +1.5 for cover insurance, and over 11.