Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Ω
OMEGA PICK
56%
Lean
SPREAD
Chicago White Sox
-1.5
Sharp money divergence of 13.5% on spread with strong signal; +EV analysis shows home spread at Sharp Action has +50% EV vs Market Consensus fair value
Ω Bottom Line
Model sees Detroit as value (+7.1pp ML edge at +105) but sharp money on Chicago spread (13.5% divergence) — split signals, small 0.5u leans only.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Chicago White Sox
Line: -1.5
Sharp money divergence of 13.5% on spread with strong signal; +EV analysis shows home spread at Sharp Action has +50% EV vs Market Consensus fair value
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers
calibrated posterior (48.7% home) vs market prior (55.8%) gives -7.1pp edge on home ML, meaning +7.1pp edge on away ML at +105 odds
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.5
simulation simulation projects 58.2% over at 8.5 (edge confidence MEDIUM). OMEGA total (8.5) matches market — no edge from model. Decomposed ratings predict 8.7 total, slightly above market.
Game Analysis
No market data exists for this game, so we're working from model projections and whale signals. The Bayesian fusion says this is a coin flip (50.1% Detroit), but the model-implied line of Tigers -143 prices Detroit at 58.8%. That's an 8.7pp gap — the White Sox at +143 are the value side. Whale signals confirm: 22 profitable wallets with $122K in volume are on Chicago. The over at 8.5 also shows Monte Carlo edge (61.4% over), but with no pitcher data and our 48.7% historical WR on totals, that's a low-conviction play. This is a data-quality-limited game — bet small or skip.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Riley Greene
Detroit Tigers
Over 0.5 hits
60%
Riley Greene is Detroit's best hitter (.284 avg) and faces a White Sox pitching staff that has been below average. Model projects high likelihood of at least one hit given his consistent contact rate.
PROP ALERT
Chase Meidroth
Chicago White Sox
Over 0.5 hits
58%
Meidroth leads White Sox with .271 avg. Against a Tigers pitching staff with no confirmed starter, the model sees value on him getting at least one hit.