Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
2.2
calibrated shows 60% cover probability vs market 50%, a +10pp edge reinforced by $130K whale volume.
Ω Bottom Line
Tigers +2.2: Bayesian fusion +$130K whale volume see +10pp cover edge, but degraded data and sharp contradiction keep this a LEAN at 0.5u.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
Line: 2.2
calibrated shows 60% cover probability vs market 50%, a +10pp edge reinforced by $130K whale volume.
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion strongly favors Tigers spread +2.2 (60.1% cover, +10.1pp edge) despite sharp money hammering home side. Whale signals ($119K, 60% away) and CLV timing (OMEGA line 0.0 vs market -2.2) suggest early value. However, model agreement is low and data quality degraded, so we fade the conflicting sharp flow with a half-unit LEAN. Avoid moneyline despite positive EV – 51.8% win prob is too thin for confident betting. Total shows no actionable edge.