Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
1.5
calibrated gives Tigers 53.9% to cover +1.5 vs market 50.0%, a +3.9pp edge; +EV analysis shows +50% EV on Sharp Action vs Market Consensus fair value
Ω Bottom Line
Tigers +1.5 at -110: Bayesian edge +3.9pp, +50% EV on Bovada vs Pinnacle fair value, whale signals confirm — lean into the mispriced spread
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
Line: 1.5
calibrated gives Tigers 53.9% to cover +1.5 vs market 50.0%, a +3.9pp edge; +EV analysis shows +50% EV on Sharp Action vs Market Consensus fair value
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers
calibrated gives Tigers 56.1% win probability vs market 44.8%, an +11.3pp edge; whale signals ($346K volume) also favor the away side
TOTAL
under
Line: 7.5
simulation simulation projects total 22.5 but with a 69.5% under probability at that line; the market total of 7.5 is far below the model projection, but the calibrated shows a 65.2% over probability at 7.5, suggesting the market is correctly shading the total down
Game Analysis
The models see significant value on Detroit Tigers as road underdogs. The Bayesian posterior gives Detroit a 53.6% win probability vs market implied 45.5%, creating a +17.9% EV on the moneyline. The Monte Carlo simulation also favors Detroit (56.8% win rate). The market spread of -3.0 is heavily shaded toward Seattle, but the omega independent line suggests a pick'em, indicating the market may be overvaluing the Mariners. Despite whale volume on Seattle, the quantitative signals converge on Detroit. Data quality is degraded, so confidence is tempered.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Randy Arozarena
Seattle Mariners
Over 0.5 hits
60%
Arozarena is hitting .284 on the season and is the Mariners' best hitter. Against a Tigers team with no announced starter, the model sees a high probability he gets at least one hit. Confidence capped at 60 due to missing pitcher data and unvalidated roster.
PROP ALERT
Kevin McGonigle
Detroit Tigers
Over 0.5 hits
58%
McGonigle is hitting .282 on the season and is a key Tigers bat. Against a Mariners team with no announced starter, the model sees a reasonable chance he gets at least one hit. Confidence capped at 58 due to missing pitcher data and unvalidated roster.