Espanyol at Sevilla

La Liga May 09, 2026 02:15 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Espanyol

0.5

Away +0.5 posterior 51.2% vs implied 57.5%, marginal value on juiced dog side with Kalshi 53.5% away

Ω Bottom Line

No Bayesian edge (0pp), Kalshi away lean unconfirmed, poor data = low conf leans only

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Espanyol

Line: 0.5

55%

Away +0.5 posterior 51.2% vs implied 57.5%, marginal value on juiced dog side with Kalshi 53.5% away

MONEYLINE

Sevilla

55%

Home ML +105 fair at 48.8% posterior matching de-vigged implied prob

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

53%

LaLiga avg ~2.65 goals/game, totals historically losing (45.3% WR lean tier), under bias in neutral matchups

Game Analysis

Bayesian posteriors exactly match market (home 48.8% win prob, 0pp edge) with no Poisson/ELO/MC available. Data quality poor at 27%, missing injuries/models/H2H; Kalshi similar at home 47.5%. Calibration favors low-tier ML (54.8% WR leans) over losing totals; reduce all conf by 7pts. Slight Sevilla ML lean as home fav despite vig.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Roberto Fernández Espanyol

Under 0.5 goals 60%

6 goals in 34 matches (0.18 gpg), low volume, model projection under (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Edu Expósito Espanyol

Under 0.5 assists 58%

6 assists in 32 matches, secondary creator, matchup neutral (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Enrique García Espanyol

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

57 SOT season avg ~1.2/game, decent volume mid (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Leandro Cabrera Espanyol

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Defender low shot volume, 1088 minutes no goal threat (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Javi Puado Espanyol

Over 0.5 goals 60%

Primary striker ~0.4 gpg career LaLiga, usage boost (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Pol Lozano Espanyol

Under 0.5 assists 55%

Midfield depth, low assist rate (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Omar El Hilali Espanyol

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Forward rotation player, decent shots (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Brian Oliván Espanyol

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

LB low volume shooter (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Marko Dmitrovic Sevilla

Over 3.5 saves 60%

119 saves season avg ~3.5+, standard LaLiga GK (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Lucien Agoumé Sevilla

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Mid low shot profile, 970 stat suggests passes not shots (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Odisseas Vlachodimos Sevilla

Over 3.0 saves 57%

83 saves, backup/rotation GK volume (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Dodi Lukebakio Sevilla

Over 0.5 goals 60%

Key forward high usage ~0.4 gpg (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Isaac Romero Sevilla

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Young striker rotation low output (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Juanlu Sanchez Sevilla

Under 0.5 assists 55%

RB limited creator role (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Saúl Ñíguez Sevilla

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

Midfielder, Espanyol D ranks mid vs mids (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Tanguy Nianzou Sevilla

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

CB minimal shots (model-generated)

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