FC Augsburg at Bayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga April 18, 2026 01:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Bayer Leverkusen

-1.5

calibrated matches market ML but +100 odds on -1.5 imply 50% breakeven vs our est 52% cover prob from scoring model anchor

Ω Bottom Line

Leverkusen -1.5 +100 (4.0 EV) as Bayesian 71% ML implies cover edge vs juiced line

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Bayer Leverkusen

Line: -1.5

58%

calibrated matches market ML but +100 odds on -1.5 imply 50% breakeven vs our est 52% cover prob from scoring model anchor

Game Analysis

Leverkusen -245 ML with 72% model prob vs 71% implied, slight +1.4 EV despite juice. Spread -1.5 +100 better value projecting 2.2 margin win. Over 3.5 lean on Bundesliga scoring avg 3.1 but Leverkusen games 3.8; poor data caps conf.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Patrik Schick Bayer Leverkusen

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Season 10 goals/23 matches = 0.43 avg; model proj 0.4 vs line in low-data matchup

PROP ALERT

Alejandro Grimaldo Bayer Leverkusen

Under 0.5 assists 56%

7 assists/24 matches = 0.29 avg; conservative proj vs Augsburg defense

PROP ALERT

Patrik Schick Bayer Leverkusen

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

High-usage striker proj 1.7 SOT as home favorite

PROP ALERT

Alejandro Grimaldo Bayer Leverkusen

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Fullback volume from crosses; proj 1.2

PROP ALERT

Alexis Claude-Maurice FC Augsburg

Under 0.5 goals 57%

5 goals/25 matches = 0.20 avg; low vs strong Leverkusen backline

PROP ALERT

Alexis Claude-Maurice FC Augsburg

Under 0.5 assists 56%

4 assists/25 = 0.16 avg; road underdog limits chances

PROP ALERT

Alexis Claude-Maurice FC Augsburg

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Proj 0.9 SOT as away underdog

PROP ALERT

Patrik Schick Bayer Leverkusen

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 55%

Variance in finishing; model proj 1.4

PROP ALERT

Alejandro Grimaldo Bayer Leverkusen

Over 0.5 assists 55%

Set-piece threat boosts proj to 0.6

PROP ALERT

Alexis Claude-Maurice FC Augsburg

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Minimal volume expected but proj 0.7

PROP ALERT

Patrik Schick Bayer Leverkusen

Under 1.5 goals 55%

Rare multi-goal games; proj 0.8 total

PROP ALERT

Alejandro Grimaldo Bayer Leverkusen

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Attacking fullback role proj 0.8

PROP ALERT

Alexis Claude-Maurice FC Augsburg

Over 0.5 assists 55%

Secondary creator proj 0.3

PROP ALERT

Patrik Schick Bayer Leverkusen

Under 2.5 shots_on_target 55%

Road foe limits; proj 2.1

PROP ALERT

Alexis Claude-Maurice FC Augsburg

Over 0.5 goals 55%

Upside in counter; proj 0.3

PROP ALERT

Alejandro Grimaldo Bayer Leverkusen

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 55%

Proj 1.0 in controlled game

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