FC Augsburg at Werder Bremen
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Werder Bremen
-0.5
calibrated 51.2% home cover aligns with market but home field provides minimal situational lean in data-poor spot
Ω Bottom Line
No Bayesian edge (51% home = market) in data-poor spot, minimal 0.1 EV lean Werder -0.5 with home advantage
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Werder Bremen
Line: -0.5
calibrated 51.2% home cover aligns with market but home field provides minimal situational lean in data-poor spot
MONEYLINE
Werder Bremen
Home ML posterior exactly matches 51.2% market implied; breakeven met but no 5% buffer due to limited data
TOTAL
under
Line: 3.5
Bundesliga avg goals ~3.0 implies under 3.5 bias in mid-table matchup with no pace data
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion shows dead-even 52.4% home win prob vs de-vigged market, but Augsburg +245 ML offers +64 EV (47.6% model prob crushes 29% implied). Spread mirrors ML with zero edge at Bremen -0.5 (-110). No injuries/situational flags; poor data caps conviction.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Jens Stage
Werder Bremen
Under 0.5 goals
58%
Season 0.38 gpg (10/26) projects under 0.5 in even matchup; model projection
PROP ALERT
Romano Schmid
Werder Bremen
Under 0.5 assists
57%
Season 0.26 apg (8/31); low usage projects under; model projection
PROP ALERT
Romano Schmid
Werder Bremen
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
56%
Winger role projects 1.7 SOT; model projection
PROP ALERT
Mio Backhaus
Werder Bremen
Under 3.0 saves
55%
88 saves season avg ~3.0 but low-scoring game projects under; model projection
PROP ALERT
Marco Friedl
Werder Bremen
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Defender minimal scoring threat; projects 0.1; model projection
PROP ALERT
Jens Stage
Werder Bremen
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
56%
10 goals imply shooting volume ~1.2 SOT; model projection
PROP ALERT
Mio Backhaus
Werder Bremen
Over 2.5 saves
55%
Alternate projection slight over in home start; model projection
PROP ALERT
Romano Schmid
Werder Bremen
Under 0.5 goals
57%
Primary assist man, secondary scorer projects under; model projection
PROP ALERT
Fabian Rieder
FC Augsburg
Under 0.5 goals
58%
Season 0.21 gpg (6/29) away projects under; model projection
PROP ALERT
Alexis Claude-Maurice
FC Augsburg
Under 0.5 assists
57%
Season 0.15 apg (4/27); model projection
PROP ALERT
Alexis Claude-Maurice
FC Augsburg
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
56%
69 stat implies volume ~1.2 SOT; model projection
PROP ALERT
Finn Dahmen
FC Augsburg
Under 3.0 saves
55%
95 saves season avg ~3.0 but road under; model projection
PROP ALERT
Keven Schlotterbeck
FC Augsburg
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Defender no goal threat; projects 0.1; model projection
PROP ALERT
Fabian Rieder
FC Augsburg
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
56%
6 goals imply ~1.3 SOT volume; model projection
PROP ALERT
Finn Dahmen
FC Augsburg
Over 2.5 saves
55%
Road game projects slight over; model projection
PROP ALERT
Alexis Claude-Maurice
FC Augsburg
Under 0.5 goals
57%
Assist specialist projects low goals; model projection