FC Cologne at 1. FC Union Berlin

Bundesliga May 02, 2026 01:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

FC Cologne

0.5

calibrated 58% cover prob on +0.5 aligns with devigged spread market.

Ω Bottom Line

Cologne 58.3% posterior = devigged fair line (-140 ML equivalent), neutral EV lean +0.5

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

FC Cologne

Line: 0.5

55%

calibrated 58% cover prob on +0.5 aligns with devigged spread market.

MONEYLINE

FC Cologne

55%

Posterior 58.3% win prob matches devigged ML fair value (-140 fair odds).

Game Analysis

Posteriors peg home win at 41.7% matching +140 ML breakeven exactly; away -180 and +0.5 -185 overjuiced vs model. Both sub-.300 win% teams in late-season scrap project 2.1 total goals. Data voids cap all at Lean; PASS juiced sides.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Said El Mala FC Cologne

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season 11 goals/31 (0.35 gpg); low volume vs Union home.

PROP ALERT

Said El Mala FC Cologne

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

70 shots/31 (~2.3 total); model projects 1.8 SOG in neutral matchup.

PROP ALERT

Said El Mala FC Cologne

Under 0.5 assists 60%

4 assists/31 (0.13 avg); not primary creator.

PROP ALERT

Andrej Ilic FC Cologne

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

62 shots/29 (~2.1 total); consistent shooter vs avg Union D.

PROP ALERT

Andrej Ilic FC Cologne

Under 0.5 assists 59%

8 assists/29 (0.28 avg); secondary role.

PROP ALERT

Marvin Schwäbe FC Cologne

Over 2.5 saves 58%

89 saves/31 (~2.9 avg); Union low shots but GK volume steady.

PROP ALERT

Eric Martel FC Cologne

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Midfielder low volume; 1163 mins but minimal shots.

PROP ALERT

Eric Martel FC Cologne

Under 0.5 assists 59%

Limited creator role in poor offense.

PROP ALERT

Danilho Doekhi 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 0.5 goals 60%

5 goals/31 (0.16 gpg); defender, rare scorer.

PROP ALERT

Frederik Ronnow 1. FC Union Berlin

Over 3.0 saves 57%

77 saves/? (~2.5+ avg); Cologne attack generates GK work.

PROP ALERT

Leopold Querfeld 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Defender profile (972 mins); minimal attacking threat.

PROP ALERT

Danilho Doekhi 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Defender low SOG volume despite 5 goals.

PROP ALERT

Frederik Ronnow 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 2.5 saves 56%

Model projects Cologne low shots in defensive spot.

PROP ALERT

Leopold Querfeld 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 0.5 assists 60%

Defender no assist upside.

PROP ALERT

Danilho Doekhi 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 0.5 assists 60%

Primary defender, negligible assists.

PROP ALERT

Frederik Ronnow 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 0.0 shots_on_target 60%

GK never scores; model projection 0.

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