Getafe at Levante

La Liga April 13, 2026 07:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Levante

-0.5

DDN model 3-0 vs Levante games (100% WR), exploits Getafe-specific 0-3 record

Ω Bottom Line

Levante ML +160: DDN 3-0 vs Levante (100%) vs 0-3 Getafe, our 45% prob = +17 EV/+6.5% edge

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Levante

Line: -0.5

58%

DDN model 3-0 vs Levante games (100% WR), exploits Getafe-specific 0-3 record

MONEYLINE

Levante

60%

Undervalued home dog +160 with our 45% win prob vs 38.5% implied; DDN 3W-0L vs Levante

TOTAL

under

Line: 1.5

55%

Low-scoring teams (Levante 6W overall suggests poor attack; total 1.5 fits defensive matchup)

Game Analysis

DDN model 0-3 in Getafe games vs 3-0 vs Levante, creating 6% edge on home dog at +170 ML (44% our prob). Total 1.5 undervalues under in Getafe's defensive style (proj 2.1 goals). Poor data (15% signals) caps at Lean tier despite EV.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Carlos Espí Levante

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season 7 goals/17 matches (0.41 gpg); model projects 0.3 vs Getafe matchup (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Carlos Espí Levante

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Low usage striker in low-total game projects 1.1 SOT (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Jeremy Toljan Levante

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Defender low volume; projects 0.2 SOT (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Carlos Espí Levante

Over 0.5 goals 55%

Home boost potential but capped low (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Jeremy Toljan Levante

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

RB rarely shoots on target heavily (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Carlos Espí Levante

Under 2.0 shots_on_target 55%

Pace-adjusted low total game (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Jeremy Toljan Levante

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Defender negligible goal threat (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Carlos Espí Levante

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Primary attacker minimum volume (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mauro Arambarri Getafe

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season 6/30=0.20 gpg; projects 0.25 away vs Levante (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mauro Arambarri Getafe

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

Midfielder low SOT projection 0.7 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Luis Milla Getafe

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Creative mid low shot volume; projects 0.3 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Luis Milla Getafe

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Minimal scoring threat (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mauro Arambarri Getafe

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

Away suppression (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Luis Milla Getafe

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Low total game impact (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mauro Arambarri Getafe

Under 1.0 goals 58%

Conservative projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Luis Milla Getafe

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Occasional contributor (model-generated)

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