Girona at Rayo Vallecano

La Liga May 11, 2026 07:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Rayo Vallecano

-0.5

Extreme whales on home despite flat calibrated, requiring only 43.5% win prob at +130

Ω Bottom Line

Whales drop $204K extreme volume on Rayo +145 ML (+2.9 EV) vs Bayesian flatline

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Rayo Vallecano

Line: -0.5

55%

Extreme whales on home despite flat calibrated, requiring only 43.5% win prob at +130

MONEYLINE

Rayo Vallecano

60%

Institutional whales ($204K volume, 100% conviction) provide Tier 2 confirmation to calibrated 40.8% posterior

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Cool 54F Madrid weather + high humidity/wind suppresses scoring; both teams low-goal leaders (10G/32M, 9G/27M)

Game Analysis

Extreme institutional whales ($204K, 100% on Rayo ML) contradict flat 40.8% posterior but align with DDN's 3-0 Rayo history. Cool 54F/10mph wind in Vallecas biases under 2.5 as both squads average <1 GPG from leaders. Poor data caps confidence, but +145 ML offers breakeven edge at 41% win prob.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jorge de Frutos Rayo Vallecano

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model projection; 10G/32M season avg 0.31, tough Girona defense matchup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Álvaro García Rayo Vallecano

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

Model projection; winger usage low in low-pace spots, cool weather reduces shots (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Florian Lejeune Rayo Vallecano

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Model projection; defender rarely shoots on target (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Augusto Batalla Rayo Vallecano

Over 3.5 saves 57%

Model projection; Girona low scoring threat, but 85 season saves imply volume (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Jorge de Frutos Rayo Vallecano

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Model projection; team leader in goals, home usage boost (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Álvaro García Rayo Vallecano

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Model projection; assist specialist, rare scorer (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Augusto Batalla Rayo Vallecano

Under 2.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Model projection; low shots faced in under spot (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Florian Lejeune Rayo Vallecano

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection; defender zero goals threat (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Vladyslav Vanat Girona

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Model projection; 9G/27M avg 0.33, Rayo home D solid (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Viktor Tsygankov Girona

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 55%

Model projection; away split adjustment down 15% (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Azzedine Ounahi Girona

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Model projection; midfielder low volume (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Paulo Gazzaniga Girona

Over 2.5 saves 56%

Model projection; whale-backed Rayo attack forces saves (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Vladyslav Vanat Girona

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Model projection; goal leader sees shots volume (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Daley Blind Girona

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Model projection; vet defender minimal shots (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Paulo Gazzaniga Girona

Under 3.0 shots_on_goal 57%

Model projection; under total projects low SOG faced (no market line)

PROP ALERT

Viktor Tsygankov Girona

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Model projection; assist focus over goals (no market line)

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