Hamburg SV at Eintracht Frankfurt

Bundesliga May 02, 2026 01:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Eintracht Frankfurt

-0.5

calibrated 58.3% home win probability aligns precisely with -0.5 spread breakeven (59.2% vigged)

Ω Bottom Line

No Bayesian edge (0pp) on Frankfurt ML -140 but stable vs whale dog action; lean home 55% conf + Bundesliga under 3.5 (poor data caps)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Eintracht Frankfurt

Line: -0.5

55%

calibrated 58.3% home win probability aligns precisely with -0.5 spread breakeven (59.2% vigged)

MONEYLINE

Eintracht Frankfurt

55%

Posterior exactly matches market prior at 58.3%; meets breakeven but no buffer

TOTAL

under

Line: 3.5

55%

Bundesliga historical avg 3.05 goals/game; both teams middling records suggest low event total

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior locks home win at 59.2%, matching devigged -145 ML with 0pp edge and no line movement. Minor away whale ($2K vol) too weak to override; historical ML Leans losing at 51.3%. Poor team records (HSV 7W, Frankfurt 11W) + Bundesliga avg 2.95 goals = under 3.5 edge (10k MC equivalent prob 58%). Data poor caps all conf.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Burkardt Eintracht Frankfurt

Over 0.5 goals 58%

Season 10 goals in 19 matches projects over in home matchup

PROP ALERT

Fares Chaïbi Eintracht Frankfurt

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

9 assists in 25 games indicate high involvement/shot volume

PROP ALERT

Ritsu Doan Eintracht Frankfurt

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

Model projects below line vs Frankfurt home defense

PROP ALERT

Michael Zetterer Eintracht Frankfurt

Over 3.0 saves 59%

49 saves noted; expects volume from Hamburg attack

PROP ALERT

Robin Koch Eintracht Frankfurt

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Defender minimal attacking projection

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Burkardt Eintracht Frankfurt

Over 2.0 shots_on_target 55%

Primary scorer drives shot volume

PROP ALERT

Fares Chaïbi Eintracht Frankfurt

Under 0.5 assists 56%

Assists spread thin in single game projection

PROP ALERT

Ritsu Doan Eintracht Frankfurt

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Secondary role caps goal projection

PROP ALERT

Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 goals 60%

5 goals in 31 matches low rate vs Frankfurt defense

PROP ALERT

Fabio Vieira Hamburg SV

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

5 assists/26 but limited shots in road spot

PROP ALERT

Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer Hamburg SV

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

Usage low in poor away form (7-10-14)

PROP ALERT

Daniel Heuer Fernandes Hamburg SV

Over 3.5 saves 57%

102 noted; expects pressure at Frankfurt

PROP ALERT

Luka Vuskovic Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Defender minimal offensive projection (1194 min)

PROP ALERT

Fabio Vieira Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 assists 56%

Season rate too low for over in tough matchup

PROP ALERT

Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer Hamburg SV

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

63 noted possibly shots; volume player

PROP ALERT

Daniel Heuer Fernandes Hamburg SV

Under 4.0 saves 55%

Model sees Frankfurt efficiency limiting shots

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