Hamburg SV at Werder Bremen

Bundesliga April 18, 2026 01:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

59% Lean

SPREAD

Werder Bremen

-0.5

Extreme institutional whale action ($214k volume, 100% home) in low-data spot

Ω Bottom Line

Institutional whales ($214k extreme vol, 100% home) create +4.8 EV on Werder ML -105

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Werder Bremen

Line: -0.5

59%

Extreme institutional whale action ($214k volume, 100% home) in low-data spot

MONEYLINE

Werder Bremen

60%

Whale consensus 100% on home ML with $214k extreme volume overriding flat models

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

55%

Bundesliga avg ~3.0 goals implies o2.5 edge despite missing pace/xG data

Game Analysis

Extreme $214k whale volume (institutional tier, 100% on Werder home) drives +5.8% prob edge vs -105 ML. DDN 3-0 vs Bremen adds confirmation despite N=3. Poor data caps at Lean but EV solid 11.3 per $100 on ML.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jens Stage Werder Bremen

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model projection: season 0.29 gpg, low-scoring mid vs Hamburg defense

PROP ALERT

Romano Schmid Werder Bremen

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

Model projection: winger avg 1.4 SOT/90, matchup limits chances

PROP ALERT

Jens Stage Werder Bremen

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Model projection: limited shot volume as mid, avg 0.8 last 10

PROP ALERT

Romano Schmid Werder Bremen

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Model projection: assist specialist, 0.17 gpg season avg

PROP ALERT

Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection: 0.17 gpg season, road underdog limits opps

PROP ALERT

Fabio Vieira Hamburg SV

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Model projection: assist-focused, low SOT volume projected

PROP ALERT

Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer Hamburg SV

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Model projection: avg 1.1 SOT/90, Werder defense matchup adjustment

PROP ALERT

Fabio Vieira Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Model projection: low goal threat, assist heavy role

PROP ALERT

Jens Stage Werder Bremen

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Model projection: consistent minimal volume

PROP ALERT

Romano Schmid Werder Bremen

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Model projection: winger generates shots regularly

PROP ALERT

Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer Hamburg SV

Over 0.5 goals 55%

Model projection: primary forward upside in open game

PROP ALERT

Fabio Vieira Hamburg SV

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Model projection: creative role ensures attempts

PROP ALERT

Jens Stage Werder Bremen

Over 0.5 goals 55%

Model projection: occasional threat from mid

PROP ALERT

Romano Schmid Werder Bremen

Over 0.5 goals 56%

Model projection: secondary scoring chance

PROP ALERT

Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer Hamburg SV

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

Model projection: forward volume expected

PROP ALERT

Fabio Vieira Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model projection: low conversion rate

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