Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

NBA April 06, 2026 02:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

66% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Houston Rockets

-3.5

Curry OUT drops GSW by 25% net rating; Durant (25.8 PPG) vs depleted Warriors defense creates 4pt model edge

Ω Bottom Line

Curry OUT = GSW -25% rating; Durant/Sengun edge + sharp OVER steam (23.4% div) = HOU -3.5 / O226.5

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Houston Rockets

Line: -3.5

66%

Curry OUT drops GSW by 25% net rating; Durant (25.8 PPG) vs depleted Warriors defense creates 4pt model edge

MONEYLINE

Houston Rockets

68%

Breakeven 61.8% vs our 64.5% prob (Curry/Horford OUT = GSW -20% win prob); Durant usage spikes to 32%

TOTAL

over

Line: 226.5

70%

23.4% sharp divergence + RLM on OVER; +76.7 EV at Bovada +250 vs Pinnacle fair 50.5%

Game Analysis

GSW decimated by Curry/Horford/Post out (-25% efficiency hit); Houston's Durant (25.8ppg) feasts on Podziemski/Green while Sengun (8.9rpg) owns paint. Model sees 68% HOU win prob vs 62% implied (-166 ML +6.8EV). Total 224.5 too high sans 50+ ppg from guards.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Kevin Durant Houston Rockets

Over 26.5 points 65%

Usage spikes +15% w/ VanVleet OUT vs GSW weak wing D

PROP ALERT

Alperen Sengun Houston Rockets

Over 8.5 rebounds 62%

Horford/Adams OUT = board dominance vs GSW frontcourt

PROP ALERT

Alperen Sengun Houston Rockets

Over 6.0 assists 60%

Primary creator w/ FVV out; GSW allow 6.8 AST to centers

PROP ALERT

Jabari Smith Jr. Houston Rockets

Over 14.5 points 58%

Minutes boost w/ injuries; Curry absence = open 3s

PROP ALERT

Tari Eason Houston Rockets

Over 7.0 rebounds 61%

Hustle role expands vs Porzingis matchup

PROP ALERT

Draymond Green Golden State Warriors

Over 5.5 assists 63%

Lead creator w/ Curry OUT; HOU allow 5.9 AST to PFs

PROP ALERT

Brandin Podziemski Golden State Warriors

Over 13.5 points 59%

Steph absence = 35mpg role vs HOU perimeter D

PROP ALERT

Draymond Green Golden State Warriors

Under 5.5 rebounds 60%

Sengun/Capela dominate glass; Draymond rebound% drops 12%

PROP ALERT

Jimmy Butler III Golden State Warriors

Over 19.5 points 64%

Alpha role expands w/ Curry out; targets HOU weak SF D

PROP ALERT

Moses Moody Golden State Warriors

Over 11.0 points 57%

Spot-up volume up 25% sans Curry

PROP ALERT

Kristaps Porzingis Golden State Warriors

Over 15.5 points 61%

Pick/pop looks surge w/ Curry out

PROP ALERT

Reed Sheppard Houston Rockets

Over 9.5 points 58%

Rookie minutes expand w/ FVV out

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail