Hull City at Chelsea
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Hull City
1.5
Chelsea -1.5 at -175 is heavily juiced; Hull City +1.5 at +125 offers a 44.4% implied probability, but our model sees a 48% chance Hull keeps it within one goal — a +3.6% edge against the market.
Ω Bottom Line
Fade the juiced Chelsea spread: Hull +1.5 at +125 offers +5.0 EV per $100 against a -175 line that should be -150.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Hull City
Line: 1.5
Chelsea -1.5 at -175 is heavily juiced; Hull City +1.5 at +125 offers a 44.4% implied probability, but our model sees a 48% chance Hull keeps it within one goal — a +3.6% edge against the market.
MONEYLINE
Hull City
Hull City ML at +1100 implies an 8.3% win probability. Our model sees a 10% chance of an outright upset — a +1.7% edge. This is a low-probability, high-payout lottery ticket, not a core bet.
TOTAL
under
Line: 3.5
Total 3.5 is a high bar for any EPL match. Newly promoted Hull will likely park the bus, making it difficult for Chelsea to run up the score. Our model projects a 2-0 or 2-1 final — under 3.5 hits at a 55% clip vs the 52.4% implied probability.
Game Analysis
Chelsea are massive -425 favorites, but that price is a public-driven overreaction. Hull City are unbeaten on the road and will sit deep, making a 2+ goal win for Chelsea far from a lock. The value is on Hull +1.5 and the under 3.5, as this has the makings of a tight, low-scoring affair where Chelsea's talent gap is priced too aggressively.