Indiana Fever at Los Angeles Sparks

WNBA May 14, 2026 02:30 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Indiana Fever

-1.5

Sparks -6.9% lambda adjustment from Feagin out creates away cover edge vs -1.5

Ω Bottom Line

Sparks +1.5 lean on weak injury (-6.9%) but whales home (+$14k); EV +1.8 at 55% conf

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Indiana Fever

Line: -1.5

55%

Sparks -6.9% lambda adjustment from Feagin out creates away cover edge vs -1.5

MONEYLINE

Los Angeles Sparks

55%

Moderate whale consensus (88% home, $14k volume) boosts posterior to breakeven at +105

TOTAL

under

Line: 184.5

55%

184.5 total inflated vs WNBA avg ~165; no pace data but indoor neutral favors under

Game Analysis

Posterior fuses at 45.5% home win matching market prior (no quant edge), but moderate whales ($15k vol, 88% on Sparks) boost our prob to 48% for +EV on +120 ML/+2.5. Equal -6.9% injury hits (day-to-day depth players) cancel out. 184.5 total inflated vs WNBA norms; poor data (38% signals) caps conviction at leans.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Caitlin Clark Indiana Fever

Over 21.5 points 62%

High-usage guard projects over on road vs Sparks defense; matchup boost

PROP ALERT

Kelsey Mitchell Indiana Fever

Over 25.5 points 60%

Team leader in scoring; Sparks injury cascade increases shots

PROP ALERT

Aliyah Boston Indiana Fever

Over 8.5 rebounds 58%

Strong rebounder vs Sparks frontcourt missing Feagin

PROP ALERT

Caitlin Clark Indiana Fever

Over 7.5 assists 61%

Playmaking leader projects up in transition pace

PROP ALERT

Myisha Hines-Allen Indiana Fever

Over 6.5 rebounds 57%

Secondary rebounder benefits from Ogwumike matchup

PROP ALERT

Kelsey Mitchell Indiana Fever

Under 3.5 three_pointers 59%

Road regression vs Sparks perimeter D

PROP ALERT

Lexie Hull Indiana Fever

Over 9.5 points 56%

Spot-up role expands with Clark usage

PROP ALERT

Sophie Cunningham Indiana Fever

Over 2.0 three_pointers 55%

Shooter projects up in model sim

PROP ALERT

Kelsey Plum Los Angeles Sparks

Over 24.5 points 63%

Scoring leader carries load with Feagin out

PROP ALERT

Nneka Ogwumike Los Angeles Sparks

Over 9.5 rebounds 60%

Dominant board work vs Fever interior

PROP ALERT

Ariel Atkins Los Angeles Sparks

Over 4.5 assists 58%

Secondary creator steps up in home spot

PROP ALERT

Dearica Hamby Los Angeles Sparks

Over 8.0 rebounds 59%

Frontcourt usage boost from injury

PROP ALERT

Cameron Brink Los Angeles Sparks

Over 1.5 blocks 57%

Rookie rim protector vs Fever paint

PROP ALERT

Erica Wheeler Los Angeles Sparks

Under 3.5 assists 56%

Limited role behind Plum/Atkins

PROP ALERT

Kate Martin Los Angeles Sparks

Under 7.5 points 55%

Bench minutes regression projected

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