Joaquin Buckley at Sean Brady

MMA May 10, 2026 01:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

56% Lean

SPREAD

Sean Brady

-0.5

Model posterior fuses to 56% Brady cover; grappler style edge vs striker

Ω Bottom Line

Brady grappler edge (82% TDD) vs Buckley striker, model +2.7 EV ML @ -120

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Sean Brady

Line: -0.5

56%

Model posterior fuses to 56% Brady cover; grappler style edge vs striker

MONEYLINE

Sean Brady

56%

Wrestler-vs-striker: Brady TDD >=75% neutralizes Buckley KO threat (45% striker KO rate drops)

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

55%

Grappling heavyweights average 13.2 min fight time (over 2.5 = 12.5 min); 58% decision rate

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior dead even at 50/50 with insufficient data (19% quality, no MC/Poisson/ELO). Brady grappling edge (TDD 75%+) vs Buckley's KO power (recent 4/5 finishes) balances to no prob edge. Props lean style-specific: Brady over takedowns/under strikes, Buckley over volume strikes; cap 60 max w/o market.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Sean Brady Sean Brady

Over 2.5 touchdowns 60%

Wrestler usage spikes vs strikers; 4.5 TD/15min career

PROP ALERT

Sean Brady Sean Brady

Under 32.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Control/grappling limits standup volume vs Buckley sprawl

PROP ALERT

Sean Brady Sean Brady

Over 1.5 saves 57%

82% TDD career; Buckley low TD volume (0.8/15min)

PROP ALERT

Sean Brady Sean Brady

Over 0.5 strikeouts 56%

Sub threat in top control; 35% finish rate via sub

PROP ALERT

Sean Brady Sean Brady

Under 28.5 hits 55%

Ground focus reduces landed strikes

PROP ALERT

Sean Brady Sean Brady

Over 12.5 blocks 55%

Strong head movement vs power striker

PROP ALERT

Sean Brady Sean Brady

Over 82.5 points 59%

Fantasy proj: control time + TD points

PROP ALERT

Sean Brady Sean Brady

Under 0.5 steals 55%

Low reversal need in dominant grappling

PROP ALERT