Julian Erosa at Lerryan Douglas
Ω
OMEGA PICK
65%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Lerryan Douglas
-155
Model spread -1.6pts from expected decision win margin for Douglas
Ω Bottom Line
Douglas grappling + reach edge vs aging Erosa striker shows +4.0 EV ML at -180 (64% model)
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
Lerryan Douglas
Douglas 4" reach + takedown defense edge (75% TDD) vs Erosa's aggressive style projects 64% win prob
SPREAD
Lerryan Douglas -155
Line: -155
Model spread -1.6pts from expected decision win margin for Douglas
TOTAL
Under 2.5
Line: 2.5
Douglas grappling style projects 2.1 combined rounds vs Erosa's 15min fight avg
Game Analysis
Douglas holds clear stylistic edge with 4" reach advantage and 75% TDD stuffing Erosa's takedowns while landing 3.1 TD/15min himself. Erosa at age 35 faces -12% striker penalty in longer fights. Model projects 64% Douglas win prob via decision (2.1 total rounds).
Game Theory & Utilization
Douglas holds clear stylistic edge with 4" reach advantage and 75% TDD stuffing Erosa's takedowns while landing 3.1 TD/15min himself. Erosa at age 35 faces -12% striker penalty in longer fights. Model projects 64% Douglas win prob via decision (2.1 total rounds).
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Julian Erosa
Julian Erosa
Under 42.5 significant_strikes
60%
Douglas TDD limits striking volume; Erosa avg 3.8 SS/min but faces elite defense
PROP ALERT
Julian Erosa
Julian Erosa
Under 1.5 takedowns
58%
Douglas 75% TDD vs Erosa's 1.2 TD avg projects sub-1.0
PROP ALERT
Lerryan Douglas
Lerryan Douglas
Over 2.5 takedowns
62%
Erosa weak TDD (<70%) + Douglas wrestling base projects 3.2 TDs
PROP ALERT
Lerryan Douglas
Lerryan Douglas
Over 45.5 significant_strikes
59%
4" reach advantage + counterstriking vs aggressive Erosa
PROP ALERT
Julian Erosa
Julian Erosa
Under 2.5 control_time
57%
Douglas superior grappling projects Erosa <2min control
PROP ALERT
Lerryan Douglas
Lerryan Douglas
Over 4.5 control_time
61%
Wrestling edge vs Erosa projects dominant top control