Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
Kansas City Royals
1.5
Omega line (0.0) vs market (-1.5) shows 1.5 points of edge for Royals cover. calibrated gives Royals +1.5 a 53.9% cover probability vs market's 50.0% — a +3.9pp edge.
Ω Bottom Line
Royals +1.5 at -110: Omega line (0.0) vs market (-1.5) gives 1.5 points of value, sharp money confirms away side, +3.9pp edge on cover probability
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Kansas City Royals
Line: 1.5
Omega line (0.0) vs market (-1.5) shows 1.5 points of edge for Royals cover. calibrated gives Royals +1.5 a 53.9% cover probability vs market's 50.0% — a +3.9pp edge.
MONEYLINE
Kansas City Royals
+EV analysis shows Royals ML at +235 offers +8.4% EV vs Market Consensus fair value (32.4% win prob). Sharp money divergence (5.7% favoring away) confirms this is a sharp-vs-public contrarian spot.
TOTAL
under
Line: 7.5
calibrated gives UNDER 34.8% vs market 50.0% — a -15.2pp edge against under. However, +EV analysis shows Market Consensus fair value on under is 51.9% (vs market 50.0%), giving under a +1.9% edge. simulation simulation (10,000 games) projects total 22.5 — absurdly high, indicating the scoring model is broken for this game (no pitcher data). The market total of 7.5 is far more realistic.
Game Analysis
OMEGA analysis generated.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Riley Greene
Detroit Tigers
Over 0.5 hits
58%
Riley Greene is hitting .285 on the season and has been consistent. Against a Royals team with significant pitching injuries, he should get opportunities. However, no starting pitcher data limits confidence.
PROP ALERT
Bobby Witt Jr.
Kansas City Royals
Over 0.5 hits
55%
Bobby Witt Jr. is listed as day-to-day on the 10-Day-IL. If he plays, he's a .279 hitter and a key bat. If he doesn't, this prop is void. The uncertainty keeps confidence low.