LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors
Ω
DDN SI PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
LA Clippers
1.5
Warriors lose Curry (30% usage), Porzingis and Green, collapsing their net rating; market -1.5 still shades home brand, leaving +1.5 with the healthier top-6 in Garland, Hachimura and Lopez.
Ω Bottom Line
GSW minus Curry, Porzingis and Green still priced -125 at home — Clippers +1.5/+105 at 52% model probability is +6.6 EV on the public's brand-name tax.
All DDN SI Picks
SPREAD
LA Clippers
Line: 1.5
Warriors lose Curry (30% usage), Porzingis and Green, collapsing their net rating; market -1.5 still shades home brand, leaving +1.5 with the healthier top-6 in Garland, Hachimura and Lopez.
MONEYLINE
LA Clippers
+105 on a 52% side: GSW missing four rotation pieces means its -125 price is brand-name tax, not shot-quality math.
TOTAL
over
Line: 220.5
OMEGA total vs market 220.5; both benches forced into pace-up minutes without defensive anchors Green and Porzingis, plus pace from Garland/Lopez PnR and Podziemski pace pushes points north.
Game Analysis
This line already tells you the story: -2.5 at home for Golden State with Curry, Draymond, AND Porzingis Out is penny home-court value. The problem? LA's injury list is nearly as bad — Beal, Ingram, and Strus are all gone too. I'll take the +2.5 with the full-er roster and the +114 U at small size, and lean under 222.5 with both second units expected to log heavy minutes. Confidence capped at 65, small samples everywhere, this is display-tier analysis.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Jimmy Butler III
Golden State Warriors
Over 24.5 points
65%
With Curry, Moody and Porzingis out, Butler inherits ~28-30% usage and Dean-scale shot volume; his projection rises from a 24-ish baseline to 27+ in this context
PROP ALERT
Darius Garland
LA Clippers
Over 7.5 assists
63%
Garland is the clear primary initiator with Beal and Ingram out; ball-dominant minutes plus better offensive talent density push measured assist projection to 8+ in this depleted roster context
PROP ALERT
Al Horford
Golden State Warriors
Over 6.5 rebounds
62%
With Porzingis, Green and Santos out, Horford is the only rotation-level plodding big left; projected 30+ minutes versus Brook Lopez maximize rebound opportunity
PROP ALERT
Rui Hachimura
LA Clippers
Over 17.5 points
60%
Only healthy high-usage Clippers wing left alongside Garland; GSW's wing defense without Green and Moody is a top-3 usage-friendly matchup this week