LA Galaxy at Sporting Kansas City

MLS May 14, 2026 12:30 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

59% Lean

SPREAD

Sporting Kansas City

0.5

OMEGA spread vs market LA -0.5; MC home +0.5 cover 58% (42.4% win +15% draw)

Ω Bottom Line

SKC +0.5 6.3EV (omega pick'em edge) + O3.5 18EV (posterior 64% vs 50% mkt), $905k whales on home

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Sporting Kansas City

Line: 0.5

59%

OMEGA spread vs market LA -0.5; MC home +0.5 cover 58% (42.4% win +15% draw)

MONEYLINE

Sporting Kansas City

40%

calibrated 32.4% home win (+3.8% edge vs 28.6% implied); MC/Dixon average 41%

TOTAL

over

Line: 3.5

59%

Posterior 63.7% over 3.5 (+13.7pp edge); OMEGA total, Dixon-Coles ~6.4 goals each

Game Analysis

Market total 3.5 lags omega 7.5 and 3.8-3.8 expected scores, yielding 63.7% over posterior (+13.7pp edge, +22 EV). Extreme institutional whales ($626k vol, 92% on home) + Bayesian +4% home win edge (32.1% vs 28.2% implied) create contrarian value on SKC ML +255 (+14 EV) and +0.5. Low model agreement and N=0 cap at leans despite convergence.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

John Pulskamp Sporting Kansas City

Over 3.0 saves 60%

Model proj 3.2 saves on high expected goals allowed (6.4 lambda)

PROP ALERT

Manu García Sporting Kansas City

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

High pace matchup boosts mid usage proj 1.2 SOT

PROP ALERT

Stefan Cleveland Sporting Kansas City

Under 2.5 saves 55%

Backup GK lower volume proj 2.3 in even matchup

PROP ALERT

Ethan Bartlow Sporting Kansas City

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 62%

Defender low usage proj 0.3 SOT vs Galaxy attack

PROP ALERT

Zorhan Bassong Sporting Kansas City

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Model proj 0.3 assists in high total spot

PROP ALERT

Diego Borges Sporting Kansas City

Under 0.5 goals 65%

Depth player low goal proj 0.2 vs LA defense

PROP ALERT

Wyatt Meyer Sporting Kansas City

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Home form boost proj 0.7 SOT

PROP ALERT

Jacob Bartlett Sporting Kansas City

Over 0.0 assists 59%

Mid involvement proj 0.3 assists in even game

PROP ALERT

Marco Reus LA Galaxy

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 63%

Star mid high usage proj 1.8 SOT in road favorite spot

PROP ALERT

Erik Thommy LA Galaxy

Over 0.5 goals 61%

Attack proj 0.6 goals vs SKC defense

PROP ALERT

JT Marcinkowski LA Galaxy

Over 2.5 saves 58%

Expected 3.8 goals faced proj 2.8 saves

PROP ALERT

Maya Yoshida LA Galaxy

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 64%

CB low offensive proj 0.2 SOT

PROP ALERT

Chris Rindov LA Galaxy

Under 0.0 assists 55%

Defender proj 0.1 assists max

PROP ALERT

Julián Aude LA Galaxy

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

FB conservative proj 0.3 SOT

PROP ALERT

Miki Yamane LA Galaxy

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Model proj 0.3 in high total

PROP ALERT

Mauricio Cuevas LA Galaxy

Under 0.5 goals 62%

Depth proj 0.2 goals

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