Las Vegas Aces at Chicago Sky
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Las Vegas Aces
-2.5
simulation shows Aces cover -2.5 at 54.1% (SE 0.5%), a marginal edge vs the model-implied 50% market. calibrated shows no edge but MC spread cover % is slightly positive.
Ω Bottom Line
OMEGA analysis generated.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Las Vegas Aces
Line: -2.5
simulation shows Aces cover -2.5 at 54.1% (SE 0.5%), a marginal edge vs the model-implied 50% market. calibrated shows no edge but MC spread cover % is slightly positive.
MONEYLINE
Chicago Sky
calibrated gives home 48.5% win probability vs model-implied market of 50.0%. At +112 odds, breakeven is 47.2%. Our 48.5% estimate yields +1.5 EV per $100. Thin edge, but the only positive EV side.
TOTAL
over
Line: 179.0
simulation projects over 179.0 at 56.4% (SE 0.5%). Decomposed ratings predict total of 203.0 — a massive 24-point discrepancy from the model line. Even with injury adjustments, the model may be underrating scoring pace.
Game Analysis
OMEGA analysis generated.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
A'ja Wilson
Las Vegas Aces
Over 26.5 points
62%
Wilson averages 26.2 PPG as team leader. With Chicago missing Carrington, Stevens, Diggins, and Jackson — their top 4 defenders — Wilson faces a severely depleted frontcourt. Kamilla Cardoso is the only remaining interior presence. Expect increased usage and scoring opportunity.
PROP ALERT
A'ja Wilson
Las Vegas Aces
Over 10.0 rebounds
60%
Wilson averages 9.7 RPG. With Chicago missing key rebounders (Stevens, Carrington, Jackson), Wilson should dominate the glass. Cardoso (8.4 RPG) is the only Sky player who can match up. Expect Wilson to clear 10 boards.
PROP ALERT
Chelsea Gray
Las Vegas Aces
Over 7.5 assists
60%
Gray averages 7.3 APG as primary facilitator. With Parker-Tyus and Bell out, Gray's playmaking becomes even more critical. Chicago's depleted defense should create more open looks for Aces shooters. Expect Gray to exceed 7.5 assists.
PROP ALERT
Kamilla Cardoso
Chicago Sky
Over 8.5 rebounds
58%
Cardoso is Chicago's leading rebounder (8.4 RPG) and now the primary interior presence with Stevens and Carrington out. With more minutes and responsibility, she should clear 8.5 boards against a Wilson-led Aces frontcourt.