Las Vegas Aces at Connecticut Sun
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Las Vegas Aces
-14.5
Sun -25% injury impact (4 outs: Angloma/Edwards/Peddy/Lacan) vs Aces -13.8% net +11.2pt away edge aligns with -14.5.
Ω Bottom Line
Aces -14.5 55% lean (+3.8 EV): Sun -25% injury massacre vs Aces -14% net 11pt edge despite $69k whales on Sun
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Las Vegas Aces
Line: -14.5
Sun -25% injury impact (4 outs: Angloma/Edwards/Peddy/Lacan) vs Aces -13.8% net +11.2pt away edge aligns with -14.5.
TOTAL
under
Line: 170.5
Combined injury impacts (-25% Sun lambda, -13.8% Aces) suppress scoring below low 170.5 total.
Game Analysis
Sun's -24% injury hit (Angloma/Lacan out) vs Aces -10% nets 13.8pt Aces edge, but -13.5 road spread overprices given 85.7% posterior win prob (typically ~10pt line). Moderate $25K whale volume (89% on Sun) flags sharp contrarian play. Low total 171.5 undervalues combined injury suppression.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Aneesah Morrow
Connecticut Sun
Over 15.5 points
62%
Team leader 16.0 pts avg with usage boost from 4 teammate injuries (model proj 17.2)
PROP ALERT
Aneesah Morrow
Connecticut Sun
Over 10.5 rebounds
60%
Rebounding leader 11.0 avg, more boards available with Edwards out (proj 11.8)
PROP ALERT
Saniya Rivers
Connecticut Sun
Over 4.5 assists
58%
Assist leader 4.5 avg, primary ballhandler with Peddy out (proj 5.2)
PROP ALERT
Brittney Griner
Connecticut Sun
Over 14.5 points
60%
Veteran post proj 15.2 with frontcourt injuries thinning rotation
PROP ALERT
Diamond Miller
Connecticut Sun
Under 9.5 points
57%
Limited role proj 8.2 amid Sun injuries concentrating usage elsewhere
PROP ALERT
Olivia Nelson-Ododa
Connecticut Sun
Over 6.5 rebounds
59%
Backup big steps up with Edwards out (proj 7.1)
PROP ALERT
Hailey Van Lith
Connecticut Sun
Over 3.0 assists
56%
Guard depth hit, proj 3.5 secondary playmaking
PROP ALERT
Gianna Kneepkens
Connecticut Sun
Under 1.5 three_pointers
55%
Spot shooter proj 1.2 vs Aces defense
PROP ALERT
A'ja Wilson
Las Vegas Aces
Over 19.5 points
65%
Dominant star leader proj 22.1 vs depleted Sun frontcourt
PROP ALERT
Jackie Young
Las Vegas Aces
Over 5.5 assists
62%
Assist leader 6.0 avg, more playmaking vs thin Sun backcourt (proj 6.8)
PROP ALERT
NaLyssa Smith
Las Vegas Aces
Over 6.0 rebounds
60%
Rebounder avg 6.0 proj 7.2 dominating weakened Sun boards
PROP ALERT
Jewell Loyd
Las Vegas Aces
Over 15.5 points
61%
Scoring wing proj 16.8 exploiting Sun guard injuries
PROP ALERT
Chelsea Gray
Las Vegas Aces
Under 4.5 assists
58%
Veteran PG shares with Young, proj 4.1 in blowout spot
PROP ALERT
Chennedy Carter
Las Vegas Aces
Over 11.0 points
59%
Bench spark proj 12.3 vs Sun depth issues
PROP ALERT
Brianna Turner
Las Vegas Aces
Over 5.5 rebounds
57%
Post depth proj 6.4 vs injured Sun bigs
PROP ALERT
Kierstan Bell
Las Vegas Aces
Over 1.5 three_pointers
56%
Shooter proj 1.9 open looks from Sun collapses