Las Vegas Aces at Golden State Valkyries

WNBA October 08, 2026 01:30 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

63% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Golden State Valkyries

-1.5

OMEGA -3.5 vs market -1.5 gives 2.0pts home value with 17-5 home vs 4 away absences

Ω Bottom Line

Valkyries -1.5 holds +2.0 OMEGA value at home vs shorthanded Aces, 63.8% vs 55.6% implied

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Golden State Valkyries

Line: -1.5

63%

OMEGA -3.5 vs market -1.5 gives 2.0pts home value with 17-5 home vs 4 away absences

MONEYLINE

Golden State Valkyries

64%

63.8% OMEGA win prob vs 55.6% implied at -125 with depth edge vs 4 Aces outs

TOTAL

under

Line: 157.5

58%

OMEGA 124.5 and decomposed 141.4 both well under 157.5

Game Analysis

Valkyries 32-12 and 17-5 at Chase get a 2-point OMEGA nod (-3.5 vs -1.5) plus a depth edge with Aces missing Loyd, Evans, Smith and Talbot. Aces 16-6 on road and hotter recent form 84.4 vs 81.7 keeps this a Lean, not a lock. Total 157.5 sits far above OMEGA 124.5 and decomposed 141.4, so under is the only side, held to 58 on display-tier cap.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

A'ja Wilson Las Vegas Aces

Over 22.5 points 64%

High-usage star with added usage from Loyd/Evans/Smith outs

PROP ALERT

Chelsea Gray Las Vegas Aces

Over 6.5 assists 60%

Primary ballhandler with depleted rotation increasing minutes

PROP ALERT

Veronica Burton Golden State Valkyries

Over 5.5 assists 57%

Starting guard role at home with stable minutes

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