Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
Las Vegas Aces
-6.5
Aces have superior talent (Wilson, Gray, Loyd, Young) vs Mercury missing their second-leading scorer Plum; model projects 7-8 point margin.
Ω Bottom Line
Under 162.5 is the play: Plum out drops Mercury offensive projection 8 points, facing the best defense in the league.
Game Analysis
Aces are significantly stronger even without NaLyssa Smith. Mercury missing Kelsey Plum removes their second scoring threat and forces Alyssa Thomas into a larger creation role. Spread of -6.5 is fair — Aces win by 8-10. Total under 162.5 has the clearest edge due to Plum-less Mercury offense and Aces' elite defense. Moneyline offers no actionable EV. Props lean Wilson over 25.5 and Thomas over 6.5 assists.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
A'ja Wilson
Las Vegas Aces
Over 25.5 points
62%
Wilson averages 26.1 PPG and faces a Mercury defense that ranks 8th vs frontcourt; her usage remains elite even without Smith.
PROP ALERT
Jackie Young
Las Vegas Aces
Over 16.5 points
58%
Young's scoring has been consistent; Mercury lack perimeter defenders to slow her drives.
PROP ALERT
Chelsea Gray
Las Vegas Aces
Over 7.5 assists
55%
Gray is the primary playmaker; with Wilson and Loyd as scoring outlets, she should clear 7.5 assists.
PROP ALERT
Kahleah Copper
Phoenix Mercury
Under 18.5 points
58%
Copper will face Aces' elite on-ball defenders (Young, Loyd); her scoring volume increases with Plum out but efficiency drops against top defenses.
PROP ALERT
Alyssa Thomas
Phoenix Mercury
Over 6.5 assists
60%
Thomas becomes primary creator without Plum; her playmaking will be relied upon heavily.