Las Vegas Aces at Portland Fire
Ω
OMEGA PICK
66%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Portland Fire
10.5
calibrated 54.2% cover vs market 50.0% → +4.2pp edge; OMEGA line vs market -10.5 signals market has overshot LV's spread by 13 points
Ω Bottom Line
Portland +10.5 catches a 13-pt inflated line vs OMEGA fair value — 54.2% cover posterior, +4.5 EV, with $42K whale volume behind the home side
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Portland Fire
Line: 10.5
calibrated 54.2% cover vs market 50.0% → +4.2pp edge; OMEGA line vs market -10.5 signals market has overshot LV's spread by 13 points
MONEYLINE
Portland Fire
calibrated posterior 30.9% vs market 21.3% → +9.6pp edge; +370 odds require only 21.3% breakeven. Our model assigns 30.9% win probability — massive +EV opportunity.
TOTAL
under
Line: 175.5
calibrated 55.2% under vs market 50.0% → +5.2pp edge; injury impact reduces both teams' offensive efficiency — Portland −13.8%, Aces −20.7%
Game Analysis
Aces without A'ja Wilson are a completely different team. The -8.5 spread hasn't adjusted, giving Portland a clear +5.5 EV on the spread. The moneyline at +320 offers even more value if you believe Portland can win outright – the injury asymmetry (13.8% net) makes that a real possibility. Whale money ($42K) on Portland confirms some sharp interest. Total under 175.5 also has merit given the missing scoring, but totals are notoriously tricky. Data quality is poor, so bet sizes are reduced.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
A'ja Wilson
Las Vegas Aces
Over 22.5 points
62%
Season average 25.7 PPG (team leader). Portland missing Feagin (interior defender) — Wilson's primary matchup weakness removed. Favorable usage boost with Barker/Pissott/Evans out — even more shot volume. Line at 22.5 is soft given her season average is 3.2 points above.
PROP ALERT
A'ja Wilson
Las Vegas Aces
Over 9.5 rebounds
59%
Season average 9.4 RPG (team leader). Portland without Feagin (3.5 RPG loss) and Samuelson — weakens rebounding rotation. Wilson crashes offensive glass at elite rate. Slight edge but market may sharpen — cap at 59.
PROP ALERT
Chelsea Gray
Las Vegas Aces
Over 6.5 assists
61%
Season average 7.3 APG (team leader). With Evans OUT, Gray is the sole primary ball-handler — usage bump guaranteed. Portland's defense without their best perimeter defender (Samuelson) gives her clearer passing lanes. Line at 6.5 is below her season average.
PROP ALERT
Carla Leite
Portland Fire
Over 15.5 points
60%
Season average 15.4 PPG (team leader). With Feagin and Samuelson out, Leite is Portland's primary scoring option — usage will spike. Aces' defense missing Pissott (wing defender) and Barker (forward defender) — creates mismatch opportunities for Leite attacking off the dribble. Line at 15.5 is aligned with her average, but the usage boost pushes it over.