Lazio at Fiorentina
Ω
OMEGA PICK
59%
Lean
SPREAD
Lazio
0.5
Lazio cover prob 63% exceeds -165 breakeven of 62.3% backed by 44 pts vs Fiorentina's 32 pts this season.
Ω Bottom Line
Lazio +230 ML (+8.9 EV): 11W season edge over 7W FIO, 33% prob >30% breakeven
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Lazio
Line: 0.5
Lazio cover prob 63% exceeds -165 breakeven of 62.3% backed by 44 pts vs Fiorentina's 32 pts this season.
MONEYLINE
Lazio
Lazio's stronger record (11W-11D-9L vs 7-11-13) yields 33% win prob vs +230 breakeven 30.3%.
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Model projects 2.2 total goals in low-output Serie A spot (under hit rate 56% vs line).
Game Analysis
Sparse data forces conservative leans, but Fiorentina +120/-0.5 offers value with 50% model win prob vs 45.5% implied amid home edge. Low leader scoring (Kean 0.31 gpg, Isaksen 0.16) supports under 2.5 at 54% prob. Props model-generated with roster cap at 60 conf.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Moise Kean
Fiorentina
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Season 0.31 gpg average, limited usage vs solid Lazio backline (model projection 0.3)
PROP ALERT
Moise Kean
Fiorentina
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
Consistent shooter (1.7 SOT/90), home matchup boosts volume (model proj 1.8)
PROP ALERT
Albert Gudmundsson
Fiorentina
Over 0.5 goals
57%
Primary scorer role, recent form supports 0.6 proj vs Lazio (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Albert Gudmundsson
Fiorentina
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
59%
High-volume shooter (2.0 avg), favorable home pace adjustment
PROP ALERT
Pietro Terracciano
Fiorentina
Over 2.5 saves
56%
Lazio attack projects 1.1 xG, GK volume ~3 saves (model proj 2.9)
PROP ALERT
Jonathan Ikoné
Fiorentina
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
55%
Wing usage in rotation, low line with home boost (proj 0.9)
PROP ALERT
Nicolò Fagioli
Fiorentina
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
58%
Midfield role limits SOT (avg 0.3), tough Lazio matchup
PROP ALERT
Fabiano Parisi
Fiorentina
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
60%
Defender minimal shots (0.2 avg), no set-piece threat
PROP ALERT
Gustav Isaksen
Lazio
Under 0.5 goals
60%
4 goals in 25 matches (0.16 gpg), bench/rotation role (proj 0.2)
PROP ALERT
Gustav Isaksen
Lazio
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
57%
Winger volume steady at 1.1 SOT, away spot ok (proj 1.2)
PROP ALERT
Danilo Cataldi
Lazio
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
59%
DM low volume (0.4 avg), focus passing vs Fiorentina press
PROP ALERT
Mattia Zaccagni
Lazio
Under 0.5 goals
58%
Inconsistent finisher (season ~0.4), tight Fiorentina D (proj 0.3)
PROP ALERT
Taty Castellanos
Lazio
Under 0.5 goals
56%
Backup FW role, low xG share (proj 0.3 vs home D)
PROP ALERT
Felipe Anderson
Lazio
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
Veteran volume leader (1.6 avg), matchup supports (proj 1.7)
PROP ALERT
Nicolo Rovella
Lazio
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
60%
Deep mid minimal shots (0.2 avg), defensive focus