Leeds United at Tottenham Hotspur

EPL May 11, 2026 07:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Tottenham Hotspur

-0.5

Market Consensus ML fair value 65.8% home win exceeds market implied by 9.3pp creating spread value

Ω Bottom Line

Pinnacle 65.8% Tottenham win vs -130 56.5% implied (+4.6 EV), rainy low-GPG spot

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Tottenham Hotspur

Line: -0.5

60%

Market Consensus ML fair value 65.8% home win exceeds market implied by 9.3pp creating spread value

MONEYLINE

Tottenham Hotspur

60%

Market Consensus de-vigged fair value 65.8% home win vs -130 implied 56.5% (breakeven exceeded by 3.5pp)

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Market Consensus fair under 51% + light rain/wind 11mph/46F suppress scoring in low-GPG matchup (Richarlison 0.34 gpg)

Game Analysis

Pinnacle fair value massively favors Tottenham ML at 63.9% vs DraftKings -125 (55.6% implied), delivering 8% edge from sharp book outpacing retail. Spread -0.5 carries similar logic but -135 juice trims EV to 4.2 per $100. Under 2.5 has marginal 51.2% fair value edge in data-poor spot; props model-generated with cap at 60.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Richarlison Tottenham Hotspur

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season 10 goals/29 matches (0.34 gpg) vs Leeds defense; model projection

PROP ALERT

Richarlison Tottenham Hotspur

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

52 season shots low volume in cool rainy conditions; model projection

PROP ALERT

Xavi Simons Tottenham Hotspur

Under 0.5 assists 57%

5 assists/28 matches in low pace matchup; model projection

PROP ALERT

Guglielmo Vicario Tottenham Hotspur

Over 3.5 saves 59%

83 season saves avg ~3/game, Leeds attack projects 10-12 SOG; model projection

PROP ALERT

Micky van de Ven Tottenham Hotspur

Under 0.5 shots_on_goal 55%

CB minimal shots; model projection

PROP ALERT

Dominic Calvert-Lewin Leeds United

Under 0.5 goals 60%

12 goals/32 matches (0.38 gpg) vs Tottenham backline; model projection

PROP ALERT

Dominic Calvert-Lewin Leeds United

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

69 season shots, weather limits; model projection

PROP ALERT

Brenden Aaronson Leeds United

Under 0.5 assists 57%

5 assists/34 matches low creation; model projection

PROP ALERT

Karl Darlow Leeds United

Over 2.5 saves 59%

50 season saves, Tottenham projects 12 SOG; model projection

PROP ALERT

Pascal Struijk Leeds United

Under 0.5 shots_on_goal 56%

CB low volume; model projection

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