Levante at Villarreal

La Liga May 02, 2026 12:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

MONEYLINE

Villarreal

None

calibrated anchors at 58.3% home win probability matching market but with Villarreal form edge

Ω Bottom Line

Villarreal home form edge at 58% posterior vs -140 but 0% Bayesian edge and poor data = no actionable EV

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior dead-even with de-vigged market at 58.3% Villarreal win prob; no edge despite high vig on favorite. Zero situational flags, injuries, or sharp signals with only 27% data quality. Totals weak historically; cap all at lean tier with passes due to EV <=0 and poor calibration.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Santi Comesaña Villarreal

Under 0.5 assists 58%

Season avg 5 assists/30 matches = 0.17; low usage midfielder vs solid Levante defense (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Nicolas Pépé Villarreal

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Limited goals output; projection 0.4 adjusted for matchup (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Iván Romero Villarreal

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

Secondary forward; low volume vs Levante backline (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Mathew Ryan Villarreal

Under 3.5 saves 59%

Home favorite vs weak attack; low shots expected (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Alberto Moleiro Villarreal

Under 0.5 goals 55%

9 goals/32 matches avg 0.28; tough matchup (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Carlos Espí Levante

Under 0.5 goals 58%

8 goals/20 matches = 0.4 avg but poor team form caps upside (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jeremy Toljan Levante

Under 0.5 assists 57%

3 assists/32 matches low volume fullback (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Luiz Júnior Levante

Over 4.5 saves 56%

Road underdog GK faces Villarreal attack (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Renato Veiga Levante

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Defensive mid low shot volume (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Adrián de la Fuente Levante

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Limited role in struggling attack (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Santi Comesaña Villarreal

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Home mid usage boost (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Nicolas Pépé Villarreal

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Winger volume vs weak defense (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Iván Romero Villarreal

Over 0.5 goals 55%

Home scoring spot (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Carlos Espí Levante

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Road vs strong home (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jeremy Toljan Levante

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Defender low shots (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Mathew Ryan Villarreal

Over 2.5 saves 59%

Levante counter threat (model projection)

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