Liverpool at Paris Saint-Germain

UEFA Champions League April 08, 2026 07:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Liverpool

0.5

Pinnacle de-vigged fair value gives Liverpool 51.7% cover probability vs market-implied 48.3%

Ω Bottom Line

Liverpool +310 ML +48.8 EV vs Pinnacle fair value; massive edge on UCL road dog undervalued by retail

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Liverpool

Line: 0.5

58%

Pinnacle de-vigged fair value gives Liverpool 51.7% cover probability vs market-implied 48.3%

MONEYLINE

Liverpool

62%

Our 48% win prob vs 24.4% implied yields massive +48.8 EV; Liverpool undervalued as UCL road dog

Game Analysis

PSG -135 ML shows +4.8 EV with our 62% prob vs book 57% implied; Pinnacle de-vig fair value -196 confirms sharp home pricing in UCL. Spread -0.5 near fair at 49.8% PSG cover, low edge. Under 3.5 aligns with 52% Pinnacle fair and UCL avg 2.8 goals/game; poor data caps confidence.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Mohamed Salah Liverpool

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Salah averages 1.8 SOT; UCL matchup boosts attempts vs PSG defense

PROP ALERT

Dominik Szoboszlai Liverpool

Over 0.5 goals 55%

5 goals in 10 matches; model projection vs PSG

PROP ALERT

Virgil van Dijk Liverpool

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Set piece specialist rarely exceeds 0.5 SOT in open play

PROP ALERT

Trent Alexander-Arnold Liverpool

Over 0.5 assists 56%

Elite creator from RB; PSG vulnerable to crosses

PROP ALERT

Darwin Nunez Liverpool

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

High volume shooter; 2025-26 projection vs PSG backline

PROP ALERT

Luis Diaz Liverpool

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Consistent threat; model sees volume edge

PROP ALERT

Alexis Mac Allister Liverpool

Under 0.5 assists 54%

Midfield role limits assist opps vs PSG press

PROP ALERT

Kylian Mbappe Paris Saint-Germain

Over 0.5 goals 60%

PSG star home vs Liverpool; consistent UCL scorer

PROP ALERT

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Paris Saint-Germain

Over 0.5 goals 57%

7 goals in 11 matches; hot form continues at home

PROP ALERT

Achraf Hakimi Paris Saint-Germain

Over 0.5 assists 58%

5 assists in 9; overlapping RB boosts vs Liverpool

PROP ALERT

Vitinha Paris Saint-Germain

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Midfield distributor; low volume shooter

PROP ALERT

Bradley Barcola Paris Saint-Germain

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Rising winger; Liverpool fullbacks vulnerable

PROP ALERT

Ousmane Dembele Paris Saint-Germain

Under 0.5 assists 54%

Inconsistent creator; Liverpool defense limits service

PROP ALERT

Marquinhos Paris Saint-Germain

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

CB rarely shoots; Liverpool attack occupies

PROP ALERT

Warren Zaire-Emery Paris Saint-Germain

Under 0.5 assists 55%

Young DM; low creative output projected

PROP ALERT

Goncalo Ramos Paris Saint-Germain

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Backup striker volume up with home spot

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