Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians

MLB May 13, 2026 05:10 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

64% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Cleveland Guardians

-1.5

+58.3% EV on home spread vs Market Consensus fair value (37.7% home cover priced at +320 equivalent)

Ω Bottom Line

Guardians ML +0.3 EV w/ extreme whales + sharp spread, over 7.0 +24 EV on MC 19.2 projected total

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Cleveland Guardians

Line: -1.5

64%

+58.3% EV on home spread vs Market Consensus fair value (37.7% home cover priced at +320 equivalent)

MONEYLINE

Cleveland Guardians

61%

calibrated 61.1% vs market 60.9% breakeven

TOTAL

over

Line: 7.0

65%

Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp edge from scoring model fusion)

Game Analysis

MC 10k sims project 9.7-9.7 tie with Angels 46.2% win prob vs market 41.7% implied at +140 for +10.9 EV, anchored by omega ML favoring Angels -154. Bayesian posterior adds +4.3pp away edge but VERY_LOW agreement and extreme $293k whales on Guardians cap conviction at lean. Under 22.5 crushes 75.7% in sims (HIGH edge conf) but totals' 48.7% WR demands caution.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jose Ramirez Cleveland Guardians

Under 1.5 hits 58%

Model projection under vs .286 BA leader in low-pace matchup (no pitchers confirmed)

PROP ALERT

Jose Ramirez Cleveland Guardians

Over 0.5 home_runs 55%

Season HR leader (6), high total projection boosts power

PROP ALERT

Chase DeLauter Cleveland Guardians

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

BA leader .286, model sees usage in Angels injuries cascade

PROP ALERT

Gavin Williams Cleveland Guardians

Over 5.5 strikeouts 59%

66 K leader, Angels weak vs RHP projection

PROP ALERT

Parker Messick Cleveland Guardians

Over 4.5 strikeouts 56%

2.30 ERA leader, favorable matchup model

PROP ALERT

Chase DeLauter Cleveland Guardians

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

25 RBI leader, high scoring env boosts

PROP ALERT

Mike Trout Los Angeles Angels

Over 0.5 home_runs 60%

11 HR leader, CLE injuries increase usage

PROP ALERT

Mike Trout Los Angeles Angels

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

High-volume star in over-biased total

PROP ALERT

Jo Adell Los Angeles Angels

Over 0.5 hits 57%

.275 BA, model proj vs CLE staff

PROP ALERT

Jorge Soler Los Angeles Angels

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

28 RBI leader, cleanup projection

PROP ALERT

Jose Soriano Los Angeles Angels

Over 4.5 strikeouts 58%

1.66 ERA leader, CLE contact-heavy lineup

PROP ALERT

Jo Adell Los Angeles Angels

Under 1.5 total_bases 55%

Model regression from .275 BA in tough spot

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