Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals

MLB May 02, 2026 11:15 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

64% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

St. Louis Cardinals

1.5

Omega independent spread 0.0 vs market Dodgers -1.5 creates value on Cardinals +1.5; MC home cover% 53.6% at even rises to ~70% at +1.5

Ω Bottom Line

Model totals 20-22 vs 8.5 line (+15.2pp over EV); Cardinals +1.5 value off omega even spread (MC home +0.9 margin)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

St. Louis Cardinals

Line: 1.5

64%

Omega independent spread 0.0 vs market Dodgers -1.5 creates value on Cardinals +1.5; MC home cover% 53.6% at even rises to ~70% at +1.5

MONEYLINE

Los Angeles Dodgers

58%

calibrated posterior 59.8% vs devigged market 55.2% (+4.7pp edge)

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.5

62%

calibrated 65.2% over vs market 50% (+15.2pp); omega/MC project 20-22 total vs 8.5 line

Game Analysis

Sharp 19.8% spread edge + extreme $229k whale volume (31 profitable wallets, 65% conviction) on Dodgers despite Bayesian ML neutral at 58.7% vs 63.2% breakeven. Injuries compound Cardinals disadvantage (-9.7% lambda adj vs Dodgers -6.9%). Degraded data caps confidence but divergence creates marginal spread EV.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals

Over 1.5 hits 60%

Model projection 1.7 hits on .308 BA leader status + neutral matchup

PROP ALERT

Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals

Over 2.5 total_bases 58%

Model projection 2.9 TB; strong recent form

PROP ALERT

Alec Burleson St. Louis Cardinals

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

RBI leader (26); model usage boost from injuries

PROP ALERT

Andre Pallante St. Louis Cardinals

Over 4.5 strikeouts 57%

Model proj 4.8 K; favorable vs Dodgers lineup projection

PROP ALERT

Nolan Arenado St. Louis Cardinals

Under 1.5 hits 59%

Model proj 1.1 hits; recent slump adjustment

PROP ALERT

Paul Goldschmidt St. Louis Cardinals

Under 0.5 home_runs 60%

Model proj 0.2 HR; low power projection vs matchup

PROP ALERT

Willson Contreras St. Louis Cardinals

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

Model proj 0.8 RBI; cleanup spot usage

PROP ALERT

Michael McGreevy St. Louis Cardinals

Over 5.0 strikeouts 56%

Model proj 5.4 K on 2.97 ERA leader

PROP ALERT

Andy Pages Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.5 hits 60%

.319 BA leader; model proj 1.6 hits

PROP ALERT

Max Muncy Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 0.5 home_runs 58%

9 HR leader; model proj 0.6 HR in high total spot

PROP ALERT

Tyler Glasnow Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 7.5 strikeouts 60%

2.56 ERA leader; model proj 8.1 K vs Cardinals

PROP ALERT

Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 2.5 total_bases 60%

High usage star; model proj 2.9 TB despite Betts IL

PROP ALERT

Freddie Freeman Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.5 hits 59%

Consistent hitter; model proj 1.6 in favorable pace

PROP ALERT

Teoscar Hernandez Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

Model proj 0.8 RBI; injury cascade usage boost

PROP ALERT

Will Smith Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.0 hits 56%

Model proj 1.2 hits vs Cardinals staff

PROP ALERT

Max Muncy Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

Power profile fits over total projection

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