Los Angeles Sparks at Minnesota Lynx

No market odds exist, so every line is model-implied and carries a data-quality haircut. The Bayesian posterior (63.3% HOME) is the fusion of a 76.7% model consensus with a 50% market prior — but model agreement is VERY LOW (29%) and the Monte Carlo simulation shows only 50.7% home win, a 12.6pp gap. That gap is the story: ELO is bullish on Minnesota despite Collier's absence, while the scoring model and MC simulation see a depleted home team. Whale volume ($46K, 69% HOME) confirms direction but doesn't resolve the model divergence. The +13.3pp edge on the ML looks large, but it's against a 50% prior (no real market) — treat it as a model projection, not verified market value. Spread -2.5 carries a 45.1% MC cover rate, making it a pass. Total 179.0 is a coin flip (49.3% over) with 24 points of model spread — no actionable edge. Player props on Howard, Ogwumike, and Caldwell offer the most concrete edge: projected usage bumps based on known lineup absences.